Let me start off by saying, hallelujah, football is back. I don’t think anything beats the anticipation of that first kickoff that sends the NFL into the regular season. I believe that is especially true in the DFS community. For me in particular DFS football is what got me started into the world of daily fantasy and it’s the sport that I enjoy playing the most. Don’t get me wrong, I really enjoyed playing NBA and MLB, but admittedly the daily grind of those sports eventually got to me where I found that I was unable to research properly and would at times put in lines just for the sake of playing. Eventually, playing just for the sake of playing took some of the fun out of it for me. I came to the realization that a lot of the fun that I had playing daily fantasy was picking out a lineup that I had done some proper research in and seeing how that team does. In NBA and MLB I found it a bit harder to do that when having a full time job living in the west coast. This is why I love football so much, it affords me the opportunity to do research throughout the week and set some lines for one day of the week. Already after the first week of NFL i feel like I have had more fun playing DFS than I did when playing MLB and NBA.
From this point on during the NFL season, I will try my best to dish out a weekly Newbie article recapping my week and going over a lineup from that week so you guys can see a newbies thought process. This week I am going to go over my lineup from the milly maker on Draftkings. Normally I don’t do more than a dollar entry into tourneys, but 3 bucks for a chance at million and the first week back for football, I had to give it a go.
Here is the lineup that I picked.
This lineup finished 9370th place and normally that doesn’t mean much but in a contest that has a million people in it, it was a pretty good accomplishment for me. It also won $15, which was my biggest win in daily fantasy football. That win was later surpassed by a bigger win on FanDuel (yes I had a good week).
The first thing I looked at before setting my lineup was the Vegas’ lines for the games that week, With football, I feel the Vegas’ lines are a lot more usable than they are in baseball. In baseball you generally have a variance of 7.5-9.5 in the run department. With football you can have a wider range of scores, so it really tells you which games are going to be higher scoring. This week, the highest point totals were the DET/IND and NO/OAK. With secondary high lines coming in the GB/JAX and NYG/DAL.
Now let’s get into the picks and what was a success and what was not.
Theo Riddick: This is the pick that I am most proud of this week. Riddick is a PPR master, and he was involved in the highest projected scoring game. In a game that was projected to be a shootout you want pass catchers, and Riddick is great catching balls out of the backfield and that is exactly what he did this week. He was able to get a Receiving TD and add a Rushing TD for a pleasant surprise. At $4000 and 3.2% owned Riddick was the guy that helped me the most in cashing this week.
Spencer Ware: This one was a pretty obvious play. At $4400 and the lead back who is going to be in for almost every snap, I couldn’t justify not playing him. Even though he was pretty highly owned at 27%, he produced so I was very happy with this pick.
Willie Snead: Along with my two high scoring RB, Snead was a very valuable part of my team. Snead was also part of one of the projected highest scoring games this week. I knew I wanted exposure to this game, but I wanted someone that wasn’t going to be one of the higher owned guys. I was sure that most people were going to be picking Cooks (who had a great game), Cooper, L.Murray, and to an extent Crabtree. I felt Willie Snead had a lot of potential this game, it was a projected shootout and he has big play potential. At $4800 and 10% owned Snead was another low cost stud for me that really helped me cash.
My three highest scorers in this lineup were all under $5000, and in order to have success in GPPs you need to find these low priced and low owned studs, and I was fortunately able to find 3.
MIDDLE OF THE PACK:
LeSean McCoy: I felt McCoy was in a spot where he was going to have a good opportunity to have a lot of touches in both the ground game and the passing game. I felt that he wasn’t being touted or talked about too much so his ownership was going to be low. He was able to produce a good line and scored a TD, so even though there were other running backs that I could have played that scored higher, at 7.2% and a total of 17, I can’t be too disappointed at this pick.
Mike Evans: Evans is a guy who I think is going to have a great year. He was in a game that was also projected to be fairly high scoring, and is going to be a target machine for Winston. He was able to score a TD and since everyone was picking the receivers in the other high scoring games, he was a good pivot at low ownership that was able to produce a good line for me.
Julius Thomas: Thomas could have been placed in my Success section, but because how good those guys did, he is in this section. Thomas is the forgotten tight end. He is only a couple of years removed from his big seasons in Denver, and is still a very capable TE. I was surprised to see Thomas only owned at 5.9%, especially since JAX was part of one of the higher projected scoring games. He plays on JAX, a team that throws the ball in the end zone with the best of them. He is a huge red zone target for Bortles, and was able to score a TD. This was a very good pick for me.
Russell Wilson: What do they say about changing a player at the last second, don’t do it. One of my biggest issues is my OCD with left over salary. I originally had Stafford in my lineup, but with the leftover salary I moved up to Wilson thinking he would be lower owned. Also, since Seattle was projected to score a lot of points and their running back situation was in question, I thought those points would come from Wilsons arm and legs. Unfortunately Wilson threw up a dud, and the guy I wanted to pick out scored Wilson by 16 points. Needless to say, that would have made my winnings much better. So note to self, don’t change lineups at the last second.
Randall Cobb: Can’t say much about this, I felt like Cobb was in a good spot. He was in a projected high scoring game, didn’t have the pressure of being the top WR, he just didn’t produce as well as I would have liked. The process was good, the result was bad.
All in all, it was a great first week for me, and hopefully I can keep it going. Apologies for the length of this piece, I am just so excited for football to be back. Thanks for reading everyone, and I will be back next week with my next progress report.
As always feel free to hit me up on twitter @Kamani31 if you want to talk DFS, sports or anything. Go win that money!