Hey everybody! Hope you’ve all had a great week! I’ve been bogged down with work and wasn’t able to get you any Notes on Wednesday—I hope you didn’t miss me too much! Tonight, we’ve got a full slate, and rather than run through all the guys on it, I’m going to note the few I like the most. So here we go!
Rich Hill ($12,200): He’s pretty obvious, and he’s going to be high-owned. There is no question about that! The Padres K a ton, and Hill has been very reliable in that regard. In fact, the last time he faced the Padres (on July 1) he went 7 innings and struck out 11! The Padres have been striking out a little less recently, but not so much that I think Hill should be avoided. His price, though is a bit more than I’d like for GPPs. Hill rarely pitches deep into games, and even his gem against the Padres last time got him 38.8 points, which is just barely enough to reach 3X value. I think he’s pretty safe, but I also think there’s considerable risk he doesn’t hit the upside he needs for your GPPs. Cash game play, though, absolutely.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,700): I know he’s had a couple rough starts in a row and frankly hasn’t had a great outing in over a month, but he still possesses a lot of K upside against a free-swinging Rays team. I think he’ll be popular (everyone knows to target the Rays), but he still has great upside tonight at a sub-$10,000 price. You can always fade given your full slate of options, but he’s a good play.
Charlie Morton ($9,500): I like Morton, but I don’t like his price tag.
Jake Faria ($8,400): That price is really high against the Indians, but they have really been scuffling lately, striking out over 27% of the time and barely producing over the past week. And this has been against some favorable pitching matchups. Faria’s pitching well right now, and though he’s not favored, I think he’s in like for a good score tonight, if he keeps the walks down. Will he get all the way to 27 DK points? Boy, I don’t know. That’s going to be hard to do. But his ownership will be pretty low, though. It’s worth the risk, but not sure I’d go all in on him.
Ubaldo Jimenez ($6,500): I give up with him! I never get him right, and by recommending him, he’s sure to give up a ton of runs against a dangerous OAK team. That said, he’s been pitching really well, and Oakland does rack up the strikeouts from time to time. He also has a pretty good BvP against them. I’m not sure what the odds are of Jimenez running 4 great starts in a row—probably not good—but he’s squarely in play for GPPs.
Nick Pivetta ($6,400): Not the safest pick out there, but this guy has the occasional gem in him. And while the Mets are dangerous, they are dangerous from the left side, and Pivetta is a strong reverse-splits guy. Add to that the Mets’ enormous recent K rate, and this is an intriguing pick. I feel better about it than with Ubaldo, that’s for sure!
Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,200): Playing against the Yankees isn’t safe, but this is an awfully low price. And that lineup does not scare me very much at all.
<<sigh>> Homer Bailey ($5,300): Look, I don’t trust him at all. He’s highly hittable, and though he has a swinging strike rate of just under 10%, his K rate is a terrible 12.3%. But the numbers I look at and care about when picking pitchers says that <gulp> he’s not a terrible play tonight. The Brewers bats have generally gone silent, and they strike out a ton. Bailey will not sustain his current 8.86 ERA. It might not get a ton better, but at his price, he’s capable of limping his way to 15 points. I’m not going there, but if he goes off tonight, I told myself so!
About the Author:
Dr. Mike Hass is a lifelong Detroit Tigers fan and a lawyer who lives in Washington DC. He started playing DFS a couple years ago when he no longer had time for season long leagues, and has been hooked ever since. He plays most DFS sports but he focuses most of his time on MLB, especially pitching. He started posting his pitching analyses on Twitter @msonichdrhass last season mostly because it helped him organize his thoughts. Eventually, there were enough people reading, and asking for it daily, so he now does it as regularly as possible (around family and career). He’s primarily a GPP player, but also writes advice for cash games, too.