NFL Week 3 GPP Plays
Week 3 is upon us and while the season is still young we finally have a bit of recent history to base our GPP plays upon. Last week everyone was all over the Giants-Saints game and this week it looks like people are leaning toward the Chargers-Colts. A lot of fades of the “must plays” in the Giants game last week paid off big time in GPP play and perhaps the Chargers-Colts fade could be the ticket this week but every week is different. Regardless, as usual, I’ll be ignoring the obviously chalky plays from that game and try to find some lower owned GPP gems the Herd shouldn’t be too heavily on this week.
Joe Flacco sits at the top of my QB list this week for GPP upside. Joe should go a bit overlooked in a road match-up with the leaky Jaguars defense and I can see things clicking here for a nice 300 yard bonus effort from Joe in what should end up being a close game in Jacksonville. It also seems like Dennis Pitta has risen from the dead lately giving Flacco an extra weapon at his disposal.
Eli Manning settles in at my number 2 spot. Not really because I’m in love with his matchup with the Redskins this week, although I certainly don’t hate it, but more because he’s coming off a week where everyone was on him and he flopped and that always seriously depresses ownership. It seems to me this whole game is flying under the radar and these two teams certainly have the potential to be involved in a mini shootout.
Giovanni Bernard is my top under the radar running back this week. Keep in mind this is a very risky play and may look like chasing but I actually like Gio’s potential this week on DK against what is admittedly a solid Broncos defense. This should be a close game and if the script leans correctly we could see a lot of Gio if the Bengals are in comeback mode. Regardless I think Andy Dalton will be pressured enough he’ll be forced into checking down multiple times to Bernard in what could turn out to be a solid PPR scenario.
Ezekiel Elliot looks like a strong play this week against the wounded Bears defense in a game where Dallas is a solid favorite. This is only his 3RD NFL game and he’s yet to have a coming out party but Sunday night could be it. He shouldn’t be too highly owned amongst the game log chasers in the herd and I really like Zeke as a solid play with quite a bit of upside here as the touches have been there and he does have big play ability.
Bonus pick—I really wanted to write up Tevin Coleman but as he’s not on the main DK slate I had to leave him off. If you are playing anything that does involve the Monday game though I really like Coleman’s chances and he is my @bullfroggreen upside play of the week!
Tyler Lockett made my list in Week 1 and was one of my few plays so far who didn’t pan out. Well the price has dropped, the game log looks sketchy, and I’m going back to the well for one more shot. Lockett should be completely off the radar this week, and most likely for good reason to be honest, but he still possesses tremendous play breaking ability and I’m willing to roll the dice at what should be a microscopic own. This play is probably even riskier than Bernard and I’d only use him at a small exposure if I were playing multiple GPP lines but Lockett is one of those guys who can pay huge dividends if he pops. As usual, I like the idea of pairing him with the Seattle defense and hoping to get a double dip touchdown.
Last week Odell Beckham was the man and I wrote up Julio. Julio looked absolutely horrible from a fantasy perspective going into the weekend and I was more than pleased to get him at around a 5% own. Admittedly Odell doesn’t look quite as bad as Julio did last week from a prognostication standpoint but, just like Eli, lots of gamers have a bit of a bad taste in their mouths toward the Giants and this is our spot to pounce. I don’t expect Odell’s ownership will be as low as 5% in most cases but I do expect it to be depressed. Stud WR at depressed ownership equals a sign me up!
Bonus pick—Mike Wallace. Love Wallace this week in the mid range. I don’t think many will be on him and there’s no doubt he’s the bell cow of the wide receivers for the Ravens. Fire him up alone or pair him with Flacco.
Dennis Pitta is probably on the radar this week I imagine. I don’t care. Another example of what looks like chasing but I’ll liberally pair him with Flacco this week and as a stand alone. I probably like the upside of Wallace just a touch more but given the potential targets for Pitta and the pricing either Raven makes a great GPP play.
Dolphins look pretty chalky. Seahawks you can pair with Lockett. If you believe in repeats from last week you could take the Colts as a hedge against high ownership in the shootout and hope the Chargers turn the ball over a ton.
Good luck this week everyone!
About the Author:
Sylbester is a poker player turned DFS junkie who specializes in NBA, CFB (if it ever comes back), and NFL cash games and large field GPPs. He is ranked as a Top 10 Flyweight grinder on Rotogrinders.com. In a little over 2 years he has accumulated dozens of top 10 large field GPP finishes including a 2nd place finish in a 975,000 plus entry DK Millionaire Maker contest in 2015 where he won $100,000 and missed the million dollar prize by a single yard. Sylbester specializes in using Game Theory to his advantage in DFS and enjoys teaching new players the basics of game strategy. He has been married for 19 years and has two teenage girls. He happily answers questions via twitter under @bullfroggreen or @DFSFrog.