NFL Week 4 Draftkings GPP Plays
Another week is in the books and I certainly had some swings and misses last week on a few of my plays particularly Tyler Lockett who is a little more injured than I thought and was pulled from kick returning duty and barely saw the field. Chalk plays worked out pretty well last week overall as cash line scores were relatively high and while some sleepers hit (Pryor for example) it was a good week to go heavy on chalk. Hopefully you took a dart with my upside play of the week who went beautifully low owned on the few large gpp slates he was available on DK: “ I really wanted to write up Tevin Coleman but as he’s not on the main DK slate I had to leave him off. If you are playing anything that does involve the Monday game though I really like Coleman’s chances and he is my @ upside play of the week!”
On to this week where it’s looking like the chalk is already beginning to develop. The Herd will undoubtedly be all over the New Orleans-San Diego matchup this week as well as the Carolina Panthers and the Detroit Lions to name a few. I love some players in those spots as well, including Philip Rivers at home going against the Saints coming off a short week, but my main objective every week, if you don’t normally follow me, is to point out some lower owned guys who I think could be key to taking down large field GPPs. Keep in mind I wouldn’t try to fit all of these guys onto one team as they are mostly going to be lower percentage plays. The likelihood of them all doing well in one particular week is pretty low but if you can sprinkle in the right one or two you could be well on your way to GPP gold. Let’s get started!
Alex Smith is never a very exciting play either in DFS or on the field to be honest unless perhaps you are a Chiefs fan. There are however 2 very exciting things to me about Smith from a DFS standpoint. Smith has some really solid upside relative to his $5600 price tag on DK this week and basically nobody ever owns him. I actually used Smith in one of my 2 DK millionaire entries last week and I plan on having some decent exposure to him again this week. Indeed I like this whole game quite a bit from a fantasy perspective and with Smith sitting just $600 above the minimum I think he’s a phenomenal play even though he’s on the road. If a rookie QB were starting at this salary with anywhere near the skill set of Smith every guru and tout on the internet would be all over him. As it is, Smith will as usual go single digit owned at a differentiating price tag that is plenty cheap enough to stack solid chalk around him.
Dak Prescott in week 1 was the darling of the DFS industry. We heard all the usual tags…including must start, no brainer, can you fade him, etc. Well the buzz on Dak has dwindled considerably in the last couple of weeks and I can’t imagine Dak will get a considerable amount of buzz for Week 4. Dak, by the way, was my other millionaire QB in Week 3 and yes I’ll be going back to the well. The price is only up $700 to $5700 from where he started the season and he now has 3 games under his belt. He finally managed to record a passing TD last week and his 2 rushing TDs already this season are evidence he can get it done with his legs. On the road against a somewhat porous San Francisco defense I’ll take my chances Dak comes up with a DK score in the mid 20s and I think he has upside into the 30s if a couple things break properly. At $5700 on a guy the Herd will mostly avoid I’ll take that any day of the week.
Le’Veon Bell OK I’m cheating a bit here from my usual avoidance of the chalk but I just can’t see how I can’t write about Bell this week at $7500 on DK. I already mentioned I really like this game and I could definitely see it turning into a shootout and I just can’t pass up on Bell at this price and I’ll likely have heavy GPP exposure. Bell is an absolute PPR beast and he’ll be coming into this game with fresh legs! He’s basically D’Angelo Williams on steroids (hopefully not literally) in this offense and is coming at a price similar to what Williams has been the last couple weeks. There is risk here as the Steelers have numerous offensive weapons including the best DFS player alive in Antonio Brown but Bell has a very high floor and tremendous upside this week. This is of course assuming he gets a full workload this week which all indications are he will. Fire him up and use him often. This is your @bullfroggreen upside play of the week!
CJ Anderson is a high mid-range back in a good spot this week against the weak Bucs defense who could go a bit underowned coming off a dud last week. Honestly I wanted to write Bell up twice here but the rules make you play more than one RB so I’ll try and obey. It did look like the Denver passing game came alive last week but Anderson is always a threat to score multiple TDs and offers some modest pass catching production. He likely will be a little higher owned in general than I like to play but I think he could be a steal at an ownership that will likely be less than it should.
Cole Beasley has seen his price rise to $3900 but it looks like he’s become an integral part of the offense and still seems to be flying under the radar for the most part. He certainly won’t get the attention that guys like Tyrell Williams and Pryor will receive this week but if Beasley were to happen to find the end zone and haul in 5 or 6 passes he’d be a great play at this price. I don’t mind stacking him with Dak or use him as a one off filler if you need someone at his salary.
Demaryius Thomas is sitting at $6700 this week which is actually a $300 salary increase but we are still talking about a guy with tremendous upside who could explode at any time. It looks like Trevor Siemian is starting to develop a bit of confidence and I think the price here is just too cheap on Thomas going up against the Bucs defense. I probably wouldn’t use Anderson and Thomas in the same lineup but if you want to pick and choose I would look to have a little exposure to both across different lineups. There is a potential for a dud here so I wouldn’t use Thomas as a primary play but I do think a line of something like 7-110-2 is not out of the question and would be a tremendous bang for the buck here in a GPP at $6700 in what I think will be a pretty low own scenario.
Dennis Pitta is on my radar yet again. As much as I hate to write up one guy two weeks in a row I just can’t resist touting Pitta against the Oakland defense which has for quite a while now been leaky versus tight ends. There are several tight ends I like this week including the chalky guys like Jordan Reed, Zach Miller (I think he’ll be chalky), Hunter Henry, and Greg Olsen. I have absolutely no problem with any of those guys and will likely use them all but I think this just makes playing Pitta all that much sweeter. He’ll certainly have decent ownership this week but with so many great options I think it stays reasonably low compared to last week. This might even be a great week to employ a double tight end strategy in some spots to help differentiate your lineups. Using 2 tight ends is one of my favorite differentiation strategies and while it’s becoming more common I still think it can help set you apart from the field as it’s certainly not the most popular route for differentiation.
Saints (haha I’m almost kidding here but not really). This is a bit marginal and I’m not recommending you have any more than a tiny exposure to the Saints defense and I absolutely would not use them if I were a one lineup guy. BUT, if you consider they are the only defense priced at the bare minimum of $2000 and you can use them to fit together that perfect lineup that no other defense will allow you to make then I say go for it. Obviously the floor here is in the negative but if you can somehow squeak out 8-10 points or perhaps even get lucky and get a TD you could be in a good spot with a defense that will almost certainly be under 1 percent owned. Super high risk here but I promise I’ll be using the Saints defense in at least one large field GPP lineup. Hopefully Chris and Ben here at DRS will wait at least until the game is over before they have me committed to an institution over this one.
Good luck this week everyone.
Hit me up on Twitter @ with any questions and be sure and say Hi to The Herd for me this week as you pass them by.
About the Author:
Sylbester is a poker player turned DFS junkie who specializes in NBA, CFB (if it ever comes back), and NFL cash games and large field GPPs. He is ranked as a Top 10 Flyweight grinder on Rotogrinders.com. In a little over 2 years he has accumulated dozens of top 10 large field GPP finishes including a 2nd place finish in a 975,000 plus entry DK Millionaire Maker contest in 2015 where he won $100,000 and missed the million dollar prize by a single yard. Sylbester specializes in using Game Theory to his advantage in DFS and enjoys teaching new players the basics of game strategy. He has been married for 19 years and has two teenage girls. He happily answers questions via twitter under @bullfroggreen or @DFSFrog.