NFL Week 5 Draftkings GPP Plays
Week 4 is gone and if you utilized the once popular Matt Ryan/Julio Jones stack last week in a low own DFS spot you were more than likely a happy camper. Looks like in Week 5 most of The Herd will be gravitating toward Tom Brady and several other Patriots in what should be a solid spot against the Cleveland Browns. I’ll probably have some limited exposure in this game to Brady and Edelman but the potential ownership here scares me quite a bit. Let’s take a look at my potential swerves for week 5 who could help you avoid The Herd and get to the top in your large field GPP contests.
Jameis Winston was one of my selections in Week 1 and he did not disappoint by putting up nearly 27 DK points against the Falcons. Winston can very much struggle against good defenses but has the ability to put up big numbers in good matchups. It wasn’t long ago a date with the Carolina Panthers could have been called a good matchup but after seeing what Ryan and Julio did last week against the 2016 version of the Panthers defense it’s hard not to take a few stabs with Winston. Sitting at a relatively cheap price of $5800 and what I expect to be
medium single digit ownership for Winston looks like a great spot to me.
Derek Carr at $6800 will probably be a bit chalkier than most players I like to recommend but honestly there’s not a whole lot I like this week outside of the chalk QBs besides Winston. Carr has been pretty consistent this year and gets a juicy matchup in Week 5 against the sieve of a defense in the form of the San Diego Chargers. This game will likely be heavily targeted and certainly has shootout potential. I am liking the idea of pairing Carr with Cooper as The Herd will undoubtedly be drawn to Crabtree after his 3 TD performance last week. I don’t have any issues with using Crabtree either but I feel like Cooper will end up going a bit more underowned than he should in this spot.
James White at $3900 lands here for one basic reason. I think he (along with probably Martellus Bennett) will get overlooked in this game as The Herd will stack Brady/Edelman, Brady/Gronkowski, and probably Brady/Edelman/Gronkowski more than it should. If you want to use Brady I have no problem with those stacks but a Brady/White stack I think serves as a solid hedge against the ownership on the other Patriots. White obviously benefits quite a bit also from the return of Brady. Buyer beware on this play though as it is high risk and the likely game script could potentially limit White’s usefulness. At the same time though it’s so difficult to predict the Patriots and if White ends up with 7-8 catches and somehow steals a TD from the higher owned guys you have gained a huge edge on the field at a bargain price.
Duke Johnson ($4100) never comes in highly owned as he is currently backing up Isaiah Crowell in the Browns offense but he has been seeing significant action. I like the game script for him this week as the Browns are most likely going to be in catch up mode against the Patriots and Cody Kessler seems comfortable targeting Johnson. If you insist on using the Brady/Edelman chalky type stacks this week I think Duke is a great piece to add to your stack in the hopes he can pile up some receiving numbers after Brady and company have done their damage. Johnson is obviously quite risky as most of my plays are but there is some decent upside here this week considering the price.
Sterling Shephard at $5500 really intrigues me this week. I’m not really sure what to make of the Odell Beckham nonsense that’s going on and I’m not totally sure how The Herd will react. What I do think is that with all the attention focused on playing or fading Beckham is Shephard will get lost in the shuffle. What I know is Shephard is the real deal and the Green Bay secondary sucks right now. Shephard was always impressive at Oklahoma and he has made a smooth transition into the NFL. While I absolutely never trust Eli, I absolutely love Shephard this week and he is your @bullfroggreen upside play of the week hands down.
Robert Woods ($3900) is likely going to be on some radars this week and deservedly so. He’s now clearly the Bills number 1 option with Watkins on the shelf and it’s hard to pass up on someone at this price who’s likely to approach double digit targets. If Woods can somehow find the end zone he is going to absolutely crush this price this week. I plan on having some pretty decent exposure to Woods as a filler and I don’t mind at all stacking him with Tyrod Taylor.
Kyle Rudolph (the red nosed reindeer)..sorry I couldn’t resist..has relatively quietly put up 4 solid performances this year and I see no reason that doesn’t continue in Week 5. Most people think of Rudolph as a cash game play and he is certainly a solid one at that. Admittedly there isn’t huge upside here as Kyle is unlikely to break off a long TD but at $3600 and a ceiling around 20 DK points or so I see no reason you can’t have some GPP exposure at a low own. Ertz, Miller, and Henry will undoubtedly be more popular in this price range and I’m perfectly happy taking a stab with Rudolph who could easily outscore those three.
Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings defense has obviously been impressive this year and they make a solid play every week. I’ll just throw this out there that Cordarrelle Patterson suddenly saw significant time on the field last week. Super high risk here but the guy does still have the wheels to break one off in the return game and absolutely nobody (except probably me) will be on him. He makes a nice solid contrarian pairing with the Vikings defense in hopes of the double dip TD. You can pretty much run any chalk you like in the rest of your lineup if you go here. I wouldn’t go crazy here as this scenario is highly unlikely but if you are throwing lots of darts in Week 5 consider it.
Good luck this week everyone.
Hit me up on Twitter @ with any questions and be sure and say Hi to The Herd for me this week as you pass them by.
About the Author:
Sylbester is a poker player turned DFS junkie who specializes in NBA, CFB (if it ever comes back), and NFL cash games and large field GPPs. He is ranked as a Top 10 Flyweight grinder on Rotogrinders.com. In a little over 2 years he has accumulated dozens of top 10 large field GPP finishes including a 2nd place finish in a 975,000 plus entry DK Millionaire Maker contest in 2015 where he won $100,000 and missed the million dollar prize by a single yard. Sylbester specializes in using Game Theory to his advantage in DFS and enjoys teaching new players the basics of game strategy. He has been married for 19 years and has two teenage girls. He happily answers questions via twitter under @bullfroggreen or @DFSFrog.