Our goal — Long Term Profitability
The #1 Goal for us, here at DailyRotoSharks is to provide lineups and advice for our customers to help them become profitble DFS Players long term. While winning a GPP is would be nice, we can’t assume that we’ll ever have a lineup good enough to finish 1st out of Thousands of other entries. We don’t chase those big paydays, that could potentially be weeks or months apart from each other. We would rather focus our attention on “Cash Games” where can expect that, over the long haul, we will consistently place in the money in 50/50 Games and H2H games with solid lineups.
With that being said, I will outline the strategy that we suggest you use on a day-to-day and weekly basis for all of your DFS Action.
10% BR and 80/20 Rule
The 10% BR and 80/20 rule is widely accepted “Rule of Thumb” for DFS Players throughout the community. The rule is pretty simple, Never play more than 10% of your entire bankroll on a given day, and, Play 80% of your action in Cash Games and 20% (or less) of your action in GPP’s
Example:
Lets say you have a Bankroll of $1,000
10% would = $100
of that $100, you would play $80 (80%) in Cash Games and the other $20 (20%) in GPP games.
Game Selection Example: Based on $100 in play
— I suggest playing all $1.00 cash games, so that you can play as many unique opponents as possible
— It is better to play (10) $1.00 H2H Games, rather than playing (2) $5.00 H2H Games
$50 – H2H Games
$20 – 50/50 Games
$10 – 3-man and 5-man leagues
$20 – GPP (i personally recommend the single entry GPP’s)
The thought process behind H2H vs 50/50 Games (via Rotogrinders)
H2H games have the least variance in all of DFS.
Let’s assume you enter One Million H2H contests against One Million different opponents. Now let’s say you are good enough to produce a 80th percentile lineup on that day. This means you will win 80% of your H2H games and lose 20% of them. On the flip side if you have a bad day and produce a 20th percentile lineup you will lose 80% but still win 20% of your games to people who had an even worse lineup than you. Of course in any one game or any one day you can lose with a good lineup or win with a bad one. However if you enter enough games the odds of losing with a good lineup or winning with a bad one approach your actual percentile rank over time.
That decreases the variance of H2H leagues in such a way that if you are a long-term profitable player (which we are) and play heavy-volume H2H you can afford to wager more of your bankroll in any one day. You will always win some and always lose some. They key is just to be a profitable player and produce more higher percentile lineups than lower percentile ones over the long run.
50/50s or Double Ups
Let’s contrast this with 50/50s. Most people assume these games are safer than H2H games, and with good reason, because at first glance it would appear that 50/50’s offer less variance than H2H because there are more opponents in each game. However I propose that they are actually slightly riskier.
Let’s assume again that you hypothetically enter one million 50/50 leagues.
This time when you produce a 80th percentile lineup you will win virtually all of your 50/50s. Conversely, if you produce a 20th percentile lineup, you will lose almost every game. As you can see, there is more variance in both the upside and downside compared to H2H. In 50/50 Games, You are fully rewarded for a good lineup and fully punished for a poor one, this is why I split my H2H and 50/50 games. I don’t ever want to put myself in a position of All or Nothing, and that’s what will happen if you ONLY play 50/50 Games
About the Author
CeeGee, has been an avid Season long fantasy player since the days of steno notebooks and weekly calls to the league commissioner to make lineup adjustments… Currently a Top 3% Grinder (according to RotoGrinders rankings) has been grinding Daily Fantasy Baseball since 2013… While a cash game player at heart, there have been Several Top 1% Tournament finishes in MLB, NBA and NFL since 2013
