NBA Draftkings Value Plays 12/5 by @
All writing is based on Draft Kings pricing, but can be applied to Fan Duel in most situations.
First, let me apologize for the long time of not posting for Daily Roto Sharks. I have had a lot of real life changes and have not been able to devote much time to writing articles. If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: BKN, CLE, ATL, NOP
Stay Away DvP: DAL, MIL, UTA, BOS, MEM, HOU
Having more game tonight, we are in store to be able to find more value. However, it will be hard to find the right combination to win a GPP tonight with this much value. An interesting low level option is Corey Joseph against the Cavs. They have not defended the position very well over the last 10 and the season. If you are looking for a filler on a high lineup Joseph is a good option. Top dogs for tonight feature John Wall, Kyle Lowry and Russell Westbrook. John Wall is price well tonight and always has a positive upside as he is the second highest projection, after Russ. Giannis Antetokounmpo is another safe option tonight but is priced slightly higher than Wall, Lowry and Curry. Point Guard is full of solid options in good situations, it will be hard to go wrong tonight.
Target DvP: HOU, DEN, LAL
Stay Away DvP: TOR, IND, PHI
I wrote about 50 of these articles last year and it seemed like every time that Gerald Henderson played he was included on this list. Henderson is seeing 25 minutes a game and has a solid matchup tonight against the Nuggets, he is projected at 21 points and is a better GPP play than Cash. Avery Bradley is second on the list and may be the best play tonight against the Rockets. The Rockets are a target at the SG position and he sees enough minutes to make a real case as a must play at SG. Demar DeRozan and Jimmy Butler are both reasonably priced tonight with DeRozan being in a slightly better position, but Butler seeing more minutes per game. If you are trying to find lower options Rodney Hood and Marcus Smart are viable options at shooting guard.
Target DvP: LAL, PHI, ATL, CHA
Stay Away DvP: MEM, GSW, NOP, UTA
It seems like every year there is a player for the Nuggets that comes out of nowhere, this year Wilson Chandler is that guy. Chandler and Gallinari are at the top of the value list for SF against a poor 76ers team. If you are into more minute then Gallinari is your guy and if you are in to more productive points per minute then Chandler is that guy. If you are worried about taking either of them then Kawhi Leonard, Otto Porter, and Trevor Ariza are all in solid positions tonight. Leonard is the safest cash play where Porter seems to be a better GPP option at a lower price. The highest projections of the night are Kevin Durant and LeBron James, but both are in tougher position than other positions high options. I would sick with a mid-range guy at small forward; however, if you are a contrarian maybe LeBron is your best bet. Gordon Hayward is in a fantastic spot against the Lakers and is a solid pivot play from some of the big names.
Target DvP: POR, LAL, BOS, WAS, BKN
Stay Away DvP: UTA, DEN, MEM
A lot of older players rise to the top of the value charts at PF tonight. Taj Gibson is at the top of the list with a projection of 33 points and an average of 30 minutes a game over the last 10 he has played. Ryan Anderson is a cheap price, but he has one of the worst “points per minutes” on the list. He seems to get about 31 minutes a game and is averaging around .7 points per minute, yikes. Channing Frye is a solid low level option along with Spencer Hawes, the problem is both of those guys will not get more than 18 minutes and they are purely fliers and cannot be taken seriously in a cash game. The two picks for cash games appear to be Draymond Green and Kevin Love with Draymond being in a better position. One interesting option is LaMarcus Aldridge who is going against the Bucks. The Bucks are average at defending the position and he is reasonably priced as an option for cash or GPP.
Target DvP: LAL, BKN, CHA
Stay Away DvP: MEM, ATL
Tonight we don’t have as many options at center as last night, but there are still a few solid plays. Al Horford comes in at the top of the list with the highest projection for centers on the night. Horford is a solid player that is averaging 1.2 PPM over the last 10 games. Marcin Gortat seems to be an under the radar player that is in a great spot tonight against the Nets who struggle to defend the position. Gortat is the best option for Cash with my model. If you are looking to fill a lower price range then Andrew Bogut, Pau Gasol, and Cody Zeller are all options to get 25-27 minutes with Pau having the highest projection, but Bogut seeming to be the safest cash game play. I never like taking guys like Bogut, but they have their place in the DFS realm. Brook Lopez is worth a look tonight as he is playing well and if the game stays close he could have a chance to score some big points.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander @
About the Author:
NBA/PGA/MLB Content Provider
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.