Finding Value in NBA Slate for 3/26/2016
If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. It’s a little math oriented so if you don’t understand the terms please hit me up on twitter @UndoneRSG.
I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average.
From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued.
The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night. All of this data is based on DraftKings currently, but will soon be available for Fan Duel.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: PHI, NOP, POR, PHO, MIN
Stay Away DvP: TOR
Similar to last night, there is a lot of value at the top of the list for the point guard position. Jerryd Bayless is at the top of the list, but my concern is that he does not have primary control of the ball like a typical point guard. Marcus Smart and Ish Smith come up next on the list, with Ish having a massive price drop from being $7k near the middle of the season. He could be a nice pickup going against a Portland team that has struggled to defend opposing guards. Real quick note, I have no idea what is going to go on with the Spurs tonight which needs to be monitored throughout the day because you could find some nice value with those bench players. The top projections on the night are Lowry, Thomas, Westbrook, and Lillard with Thomas being the cheapest option out of those guys. Westbrook could be a great pick if all the Spurs backups play and the Thunder somehow mess around and let them stay in the game (which is a total option).
Target DvP: BKN, PHI
Stay Away DvP: UTA
The Portland backup shooting guards have been at the top of my list for a few weeks now, but the problem is you never know who is going to log more minutes. Henderson seems to be a more versatile player and can play guard or forward, while Crabbe seems to be locked into the guard position on most nights. If you want to pivot from that situation, Bradley, Lee, and LaVine are all a little undervalued tonight. LaVine has the highest projection, but is in the worst spot of those three. Bradley has the lowest projection but defensively, the Suns have been a little worse than average at guarding the SG position. Top projections on the night are DeRozen, Batum, and Middleton. Two interesting names to note are C.J McCollum and Monta Ellis who are in great positions, but are not very valued. Also, KCP has been playing well over the last few games and is an option if you are into hot streaks.
Target DvP: BKN, BOS, PHI
Stay Away DvP: NYK, CHA, SAS, UTA
Really incredible how big of a difference the small forward position has been for the Celtics with Crowder out. They went from one of the tougher guarding positions to one of the worst with him being sidelined. That being said, Mirza Teletovic is in a good position tonight to knock down some threes if he can hit the open shot. This guy is a real streak shooter, he is only a GPP play ever. Al-Farouq Aminu has been playing really well on the late half of the season and is one of the more under valued players on the night going against the 76ers. Mike Dunleavey is another option for a low level player, if he can get the minutes he is a decent option. Top names are George, James, Antetokounmpo, Durant, and Anthony. An interesting punt play if he starts is Jonothan Simmons of the Spurs.
Target DvP: NONE
Stay Away DvP: CLE, OKC
There is quite a bit of value at the top of this list, but monitoring the minutes can be difficult with these guys. I’m intrigued by Myles Turner and Jabari Parker for power forward. They both are in decent situations and have been playing well over the last few weeks of the season. Another interesting option is Derrick Favors going against the Wolves. He has had a pretty decent last few weeks and the Wolves have not been the best at defending the PF position. If you are looking for a top option player it comes down to Favors, Millsap, and Love. Love is very interesting because of the huge price drop, which is completely justified, but he always has a chance to put up a 20 and 10 game.
Target DvP: MIL, POR, CHA
Stay Away DvP: OKC, CHI, TOR, ATL, UTA
Jared Sullinger has jumped up to the list for one of the first times on the year, especially with Tyson Chandler ruled out. He has a great opportunity tonight to get a lot of boards and put up a decent amount of points; however, I have noticed the better the situation Sullinger is in the more he upsets me. He has hit 6x value 37% of the time at this price, which is encouraging. The second name on the list is Jonas V of the Raptors, who I really like. He does a good job on the boards and is pretty involved with a guard oriented offense. If you are looking at a top level option, it’s the normal guys of Drummond, Towns, and Lopez with Lopez being in the best spot defensively. The only person I would take a hard look at is Pau Gasol if he is not on a minutes restriction. He is a fantastic player late in his career and always has an easy chance of a double-double.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight! If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, but I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.
– Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)