Finding Value in NBA Slate for 3/29/2016
Spreadsheets now include both Draft Kings and Fan Duel. All writing is based on Draft Kings pricing, but can be applied to Fan Duel in most situations.
If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
There are not a huge amount of games to be played tonight. If you are looking to try and take down a GPP you need to hit on your contrarian picks.
*NOTE* Click on the Player Names below, and you will be
linked to their DFSGold.com Player Profile Page
Target DvP: PHI, CHI
Stay Away DvP: BKN
For the first time in a few weeks, I am struggling to find good value at the point guard slot. One of the top names on the list is Reggie Jackson going against his old squad, the Thunder. I am not a big guy on revenge games and trying to force myself to play someone because of that, but Reggie is in a decent spot tonight based on season statistics. It does seem that OKC has tightened up the defense at the point guard spot over the last few games, which could be due to not having played many top level point guards over the last 10. If you want to stay away from that Kyrie Irving is at a nice price tonight against the Rockets and had some rest last game. Lower level options include Shane Larkin and Patrick Beverly with Shane being in a slightly better spot, but Patrick starting. John Wall, Steph Curry, and Russell Westbrook are the top level picks tonight and are priced quite fair with Wall being the cheapest out of that bunch. Out of those three, Westbrook is in the best position statistically tonight, but I don’t think there are many terrible options at point guard.
Target DvP: PHI, HOU, BKN
Stay Away DvP: WAS
Similar to the point guard spot, shooting guards are fairly priced tonight as well. Unless there are some people ruled out, tonight seems like we could have a more low scoring night. Bradley Beal and J.R. Smith are at the top of value based on my model tonight. J.R. Smith is in a great spot tonight against the Rockets who are one of the worst teams at defending the three point line for shooting guards. This could help J.R. knock down a few more threes than normal, however since he relies on only threes I believe he is a GPP play only. Courtney Lee and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are two more names that have decent value tonight. KCP has been logging a ton of minutes and could end up having a lot against the Thunder tonight. The only top level guy tonight is James Harden who is in a decent situation against the Cavs, I would have 0 issues paying up for him.
Target DvP: BKN, PHI
Stay Away DvP: WAS
At small forward we finally find out first player with a projections under 180 dollars per point: Harrison Barnes. I have a few problems with him that include his lack of being able to hit a wide open layup, being the fifth option offensively, and the Wizards have done a good job defending the position over the last ten. The upside is that he has been averaging over 30 minutes a game with Iggy sidelined. If you want to pivot from that situation, I don’t blame you, but you can look to Evan Fournier who is in a good spot against the Nets. The next three names happen to be three of the four highest projections on the night in James (out), Nicolas Batum, and Paul George. Batum is in the best statistical spot tonight going against the 76ers trailed by James.
Target DvP: None
Stay Away DvP: CLE, OKC
Draft Kings is not really helping us out with any value picks tonight, unless some people get ruled out. I think this is actually a good thing and hope no one gets ruled out tonight because I think we will see some more experienced players taking down the GPPs. For PFs, Tristian Thompson and Nene are at the top of the value list tonight. Thompson has been averaging around 27 minutes a game and could be in for a lot of minutes tonight against the Rockets. You could easily take Kevin Love if you feel more comfortable about a starter, but I think both are good picks (Thompson could start it just needs to be monitored). Draymond Green is the highest projection on the night, but is not in the best situation (he is a different type of power forward though). If you are looking for some bottom of the barrel guys tonight, power forward is not the spot but you could punt Jason Smith.
Target DvP: GSW, HOU, ORL
Stay Away DvP: OKC, CLE
Again we lack to find great value in the center spot with our only guy being under $200 dollars per point being Ian Mahinmi. He is not in the best spot against the Bulls who have done a good job against the center over the last few games. I actually like Brook Lopez or Al Jefferson a little better than Ian tonight. Al is a punt type play only averaging 20 minutes a game, but if Brook Lopez could log 35 or more minutes he could be in for a nice night against the Magic. Brook has hit 5x value 66% of the time at this price point and is one of my favorite guys tonight. I hate saying guys are locks because there is never a sure thing and I am not going to sit here and tell you that something is a lock when that’s just a complete lie. I do like the situation he is in and put in similar situations he will succeed more often than not.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight! If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, but I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)