Finding Value in NBA Slate for 3/30/2016
Spreadsheets now include both Draft Kings and Fan Duel. All writing is based on Draft Kings pricing, but can be applied to Fan Duel in most situations.
If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: MIN, NOP
Stay Away DvP: UTA, MIA
Value at the top of the board for point guard tonight. We have Jerryd Bayless, Tony Parker, and Tim Fraizer all at the top of the list. I am really intrigued by Tim Fraizer and Toney Douglas tonight with the possibility of Cole and Jrue being out. You need to monitor what is going on with Norris Cole, but a stack of Fraizer and Douglas may not be a bad play tonight. If you are worried about the Pelicans, Bayless has been playing relatively well and his price isn’t increasing in a good matchup against the Suns. If you want a high level option, the best value on the board is Lowry followed by Rondo. John Wall is the highest projection in a must win game tonight after sitting the last few minutes in the Warriors game last night. Chris Paul and Steph Curry round out the top projections on the night.
Target DvP: DAL, DEN
Stay Away DvP: UTA
Some different low salary options at the top of the list tonight for shooting guards. Bradley Beal tops the list in a high scoring affair against the Kings. Beal has been underpriced, for good reason, after his return from injury, but is in a nice spot against a Kings team that has been giving up tons of points in recent games. Looking at the best positions, the Knicks shooting guards in a nice spot tonight against the Dallas Mavericks who have gone in a bit of a slump at defending the SG position. Aaron Afflalo is actually at the top of the projections in this situation and I understand peoples concern with playing him considering his small upside. If upside is what you are looking for, Josh Richardson has been tearing it up over the last few games for the Heat and looking to continue that trend tonight against the Lakers. He could get a ton of time tonight and may be a cornerstone of some lineups. If you are looking for a high level option you have DeRozen, Wade, and Middleton with Wade and Middleton being in the best statistical spots. I would lean more on Middleton who will play more minutes than Wade, unless Wade and Bryant want to have a final go at it.
Target DvP: DEN, DAL
Stay Away DvP: UTA, SAC
Tonight, Matt Barnes jumps to the top of the value list in a nice matchup against the Nuggets. He has hit 5x value 80% of the time over the past 3 weeks and we are looking for another chance tonight at $5,300 on DK. If you are looking for a true GPP play you could looking at Mirza Teletovic going against the Bucks. An interesting contrarian pick is Thabo Sefalosha in a solid match against the Raptors. He seems to go under looked on most forums and has been playing well recently averaging 25 minutes a game. If you are looking for high level options Carmelo and Giannis are two nice options. Carmelo is in a little better spot than Giannis, unless Giannis runs mainly point. In my opinion, Carmelo is a better cash play and Giannis is a better GPP play.
Target DvP: None
Stay Away DvP: CLE, OKC
It is getting to the point in the season where we are unsure who is really going to play until about 15 minutes before lock. That makes Draft Kings a much better option with the ability to late swap, unlike Fan Duel. Zach Randolph is one of the best plays on my list tonight, but he is listed Questionable. If you don’t feel comfortable with that, Darrell Arthur and JaMychal Green are nice options with good value. Arthur is a GPP play only, but in certain games he can easily put up 25-30 points which is great at his price level. High level options include DeMarcus Cousins, D. Green, and P. Millsap with Cousins being the highest out of the bunch.
Target DvP: GSW, SAC, PHO
Stay Away DvP: TOR, DEN
Chris Anderson has inserted himself back into a role with the Grizzlies and has been logging a nice amount of minutes over the last few weeks. He is not the best low level option, but if you are planning on paying up for positions other than center he is a nice pick for either cash or GPP. My favorite name on the center list is Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT isn’t in the best situation against the Clippers tonight, but he showed us against Phoenix that he can handle any type of defense that is thrown at him. If you are concerned about KAT, Whiteside is a little overvalued but is in a nice situation and could pick up a lot of minutes against the Lakers. Another name to be aware of is Robin Lopez against the Mavericks. He has been playing well since the All-Star break and is in a nice situation with ZaZa going bananas.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight! If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, but I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)