Finding Value in NBA Slate for 4/1/2016
Spreadsheets now include both Draft Kings and Fan Duel. All writing is based on Draft Kings pricing, but can be applied to Fan Duel in most situations.
If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: PHI, DET
Stay Away DvP: NONE
Tonight is going to be an interesting night for lineup constructions. There aren’t any players that are over $8,800 (that are playing) on Draft Kings and I think we will see more balanced lineups. For point guards, T.J. McConnell, George Hill, and Tony Parker are at the top of the value charts. George Hill is in a great position against the 76ers and has been getting around 30 minutes a game over the last 3 weeks. He is not the primary option for the offense, but he still has the opportunity to be a nice filler in your lineup. D.J. Augustin is back to form and is playing well with the Nuggets, he and Muiday have been doing a nice job and the Nuggets/Kings game could have a ton of value with a lot of top players for the Kings sitting out tonight. If you are looking for a top level guy, Lowry and Lillard have the two highest projections with Lowry being a much better price option, but Lillard always having the opportunity to destroy a team.
Target DvP: PHI, DEN
Stay Away DvP: MIA, DET, SAS, CHI
Will Barton and Gary Harris continue their dominance of the value chart. As I seem like I say ever night, it is really hard to figure out which one will play better or log more minutes. Looking at the statistics, Barton has a higher points per minute with Harris averaging 4 more minutes a game. Based on the amount of players out for the Kings, the backup (Barton) could end up with more minutes if it turns into a blowout. Next two names are Manu Ginobili and Monta Ellis. I really have a problem rostering Manu with his inability to get more than 20 minutes on most nights; however, he is a good option if he can log 25 minutes (don’t expect that load). Monta Ellis is in a must win game for the Pacers against a team that struggles to guard anyone. Top level options include Butler, Wade and DeRozen with Wade being in the best statistical position. If you are into minutes then Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could end up logging a ton of minutes tonight in a must win for the Pistons.
Target DvP: PHI, DEN
Stay Away DvP: NONE
It has been weeks since a top tier player has gotten the top spot on my model for value. Paul George is the one to finally crack that spot against the 76ers. This is a MUST win game for the Pacers who are being trailed by the Bulls and Wizards for the last spot in the NBA playoffs. A real option is to take players only from teams that need wins going down the stretch, anyways Paul George is in the best statistical positon at the best price tonight. Next two names are Marcus Morris and Joe Johnson with Morris being a better offense threat and Johnson being a hit or miss type of guy. If you are into hot streaks both Al-Farouq Aminu and Justice Winslow have been playing well over the last few weeks and have both been playing around 30 minutes a game. Aminu averages way more points per minute at 1.01 vs Winslows .65.
Target DvP: None
Stay Away DvP: MIA, SAS, TOR
Short slates always mean you need to consider being more contrarian than a regular slate. Power Forward and Point Guard may provide the best opportunity for you to achieve that goal. Top three names of this list are Darrell Arthur, Myles Turner, and Jordan Hill. All of those players are in the same statistical situation with Myles Turner averaging more points per minute. Jordan Hill would be a complete punt play on the basis of the Pacers forwards getting into foul trouble and Hill being forced to play 20-25 minutes. The only top option is LaMarcus Aldridge who has been playing well recently, but is a little over priced for his value. Based on this slate, Aldridge is your best bet in any cash game situation unless you feel extremely comfortable with one of the lower option players.
Target DvP: SAC
Stay Away DvP: TOR, DEN, SAS
If Nurkic is healthy tonight, he is the most valued player on the slate based on my model. He is averaging 1.30 points per minute over the last 3 weeks and averages enough minutes to put that number to use. Ian Mahinmi is the second player on the list and he has been logging a ton of minutes for a player that is priced at $4,900. If you are worried about those and want to take a player that costs more: Drummond, Gasol, and Whiteside are the three options. Those three players have been playing very well and all are in statistically equal opportunities to succeed tonight. The only difference between the three is that Drummond is priced a little better than the other two, but still all three are great options and will probably be the staple of most lineups center and utility position. Lastly, Koufus had another great game last night coming off the bench and finishing the game, pay attention to what is going on with the Kings lineup for him.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight! If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, but I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)