**Please Read – I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play NBA on Fan Duel than Draft Kings.**
Key: When looking at Target DvP it is figured based on a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense for that position. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. For the Target DvP they have a rating of 1.10 or higher. Stay away DvP they have a rating of .90 or lower. The Target/Stay away are based on a ten game trend.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Link to spreadsheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/786byo1vt8zr3su/Fan%20Duel%20Final%20NBA.xlsx?dl=0
Implied Points are based on salary to get to 280 team points for Fan Duel. For example, if Jrue Holiday costs $6,900 we take $6,900/($60,000/280)= 32.24 implied points based on salary to get to 280. If you want to do a different number you can. This can be applied to Draft Kings as well.
Target DvP: DEN, CHA
Stay Away DvP: MIL, WAS
A lot of solid value today as we move through the day. This article is about the whole day and not one slate specifically. First, Elfrid Payton is high on the list with a huge projection and a high minutes projection for tonight. Payton is going against the Nuggets, who have struggled to stop opposing guards for the whole season. However, he only scores over his implied value of 28 points in 38% of his matches; however, he doesn’t bust too much about could easily be used in cash games. Next, Sergio Rodriguez has a solid projection even though he is going against one of the best defending guard teams in the league. The Bucks have been solid this year, and Sergio hasn’t been the best player in the world; however, at this price Sergio scores over implied value in 62% of contests and could be a nice pick if he can grab some points. I think this is a big contrarian play and CANNOT be used in cash games, but if you want to SPRINKLE him in some GPPs it’s not a terrible idea. Since his return from the concussion, George Hill has been high on the list, however he is going against a solid guard defense in the Suns. Hill scores over implied value in 56% of his contests and only scores under 25 points in 22% of games, I think hill could be a solid play for tonight. Finally, Chris Paul is the most undervalued player at a high price. Paul only scores over his implied value in 40% of contests, but is one of the better cash game plays on the slate. Paul has only scores under 30 points in 8.57% of contests and is going against an OKC team that is sure to try and put up huge numbers; therefore, Paul will have more opportunity as well.
Top projections on the night are Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, and John Wall
Target DvP: DEN
Stay Away DvP: UTA, WAS, ATL
Jody Meeks has the best value projection I have had this entire year. Meeks is projected to have 29 points, don’t ask me how, against a Nuggets team that has really struggled over the last 10 games. Meeks is projected to have 35 minutes based on my model, but you need to pay attention to some beat writers to see how many Magic are out tonight to see if that will be true. Second, Gary Harris has a solid projection against the Magic. Harris scores over his implied total of 22 in 53% of matches and is a safe pick for both cash and GPP. If you are looking for some high upside, Tyreke Evans is worth a look in GPPs. Over the past couple of games Evans has looked great and should continue that trend against the Pacers second unit. The Clippers shooting guards of JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford are both solid picks tonight against a solid Thunder defense. Neither Redick or Crawford are the best picks in cash games, but for the price both have high upside, with Crawford having a little more upside than Redick if he can log the minutes.
Top projections on the night are Giannis Antetokounmpo, CJ McCollum, Nicolas Batum, and Bradley Beal.
Target DvP: MIL, CLE, WAS, GSW
Stay Away DvP: UTA, NYK
Not as much value at small forward as there were in some other positions. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist moves to the top of the list against a fairly decent Celtics forward defense. MKG is up and down on his usage in the Hornets offense, but typically is the 3rd or 4th option after Walker and Batum. He is projected over his implied total and does score over that total of 22 in 46% of contests on the year. The Celtics have been better at stopping opposing forwards over the last 5 games, but over the last 10 haven’t fared so well. Second, Gordon Hayward moved up on the list against the Suns. The Suns are not the best team in the world at stopping opposing forwards get fantasy points, and Hayward will be a solid cash game play because of it. Hayward scores over his implied value in 54% of contests and has scored 1.06 points per minute over the last ten games. I really like the upside that Hayward presents and think he could easily be used in GPPs as well. Aaron Gordon has a nice projection based on his last ten game, but is such a streaky player we cannot have faith in him for cash. However, he has some nice upside for the price and could be justified in GPPs. Last, Kevin Durant moves high on the list against the Cavs. However, based on my model the Cavs haven’t been good at defending opposing small forwards because of LeBron moving around on his matchups each night. I think you can expect him to move on Durant a little bit more, but Durant should be able to handle this defense. Durant scores over implied value in 48% of games and this one should be fun to watch.
Top projections on the night are Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Gordon Hayward.
Target DvP: BOS
Stay Away DvP: UTA, MIL
Terrance Jones moves to the top of the list against the Pacers tonight. This pick hinges on the lineup situation of the Pelicans, because if a few people are in the lineup, there’s a chance that Jones will see a decrease in minutes. He has played well over the last 10 games, but only hits over implied value in 36% of contests. Second, Derrick Favors has a nice projections against the Suns tonight, but I cannot trust Favors because of his fluctuation in minutes each night and because he only scores over implied value in 37% of contests. Two guys that are a little more solid are Kevin Love and Draymond Green. Both have fairly decent matchups for the position, have been scoring 1.14 points over their last 10 games, and only score under 25 points in 5% of contests. It’s crazy how similar they are, but let’s get to the separation: Kevin Love has much more upside, while Dray is much more solid in cash games. Here’s why: Love scores over 50 fantasy points in 17% of matches, while Draymond is only at 8%. For cash games, Draymond scores over 35 fantasy points in 66% of matches while Love is at 54%. Good luck picking between the two.
Top projections on the night are Anthony Davis, Kevin Love, Draymond Green, and Paul Millsap.
Target DvP: GSW, CHA, OKC
Stay Away DvP: CLE, ATL, UTA
Nikola Vucevic jumps to the top of the list after being inserted in the starting lineup last week. Vucevic scores over his implied value in 41% of matches and has some nice upside to use in both GPP and cash games. His matchup is solid, the Nuggets aren’t the best team in the world at stopping opposing centers and Nikola could be in for a solid night. Second, Tristian Thompson has a solid projection against the Warriors, but he is a different type of center. I am not sure how many defensive rebounds he will be able to grab because of the Warriors long range shooting. My thought would be that the majority of the boards will be going to LeBron or Love away from the basket, but I am not sure. He has a solid projection and could be in for a nice night if he can grab a lot or blocks. Last, Myles Turner finally has seen enough of a price break for us to start considering him again. He has some incredible upside and could easily be used in both formats. The Pelicans have been WAY better at stopping opposing centers over the last 10 games than the year, but Turner has been able to overcome odds against him all year. I don’t think you want to use in cash games, but GPPs could be solid.
Top projections on the night are Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert, Dwight Howard, and Al Horford.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander @
About the Author:
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.