Finding Value: NBA 12/15 by @
**Please Read – I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play NBA on Fan Duel than Draft Kings.**
*Note* If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player. For Draft Kings, If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. For Fan Duel, if a player has a $PP less than 230 he’s undervalued and over 230 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200/230 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: NOP, DEN
Stay Away DvP: MIL
Last night was an absolutely brutal night if you tried to force some value plays from the Cavs game. A few of the backups starting were absolute train wrecks. Let’s move ahead to today, hopefully there will be less scratches as the day goes on. Fortunately, there are some solid players at the top of the list. Tim Frazier is at the top of the charts tonight against the Pacers. Frazier has been playing well over the last 10 game and the Pacers are an average team at defending opposing point guards. On the other side of the bench, Jeff Teague is in a great spot tonight against the Pelicans and is a pretty clear lock for cash games tonight. If you are looking to spend up a little bit of money, Damian Lillard is in a good spot against the Nuggets. He has the highest projection for point guards and the highest cash game and GPP rating as well. Top projections are Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, Eric Bledsoe, and Jeff Teague.
Target DvP: DEN, MIL, IND
Stay Away DvP: NONE
At shooting guard, we find ourselves in a nice position with CJ McCollum, Dwayne Wade, and Klay Thompson at the top 3 for value tonight. CJ McCollum is in the best spot statistically against a struggling Nuggets defense. He has a solid 0.98 points per minute over the last 10 games and should be a solid play in either format tonight. Dwayne Wade is in the second best spot against the Bucks, who are below average against the position. Wade had the night off last night and will hopefully play a high volume of minutes. Last, Klay Thompson is in the worst spot statistically, but as we know, has the best chance to pop of 40+ points out of the three shooting guards. Top projections on the night are Giannis Antetokounmpo, CJ McCollum, Dwayne Wade, and Klay Thompson.
Target DvP: NONE
Stay Away DvP: NONE
This may be the first time all year that the top level players are sitting at the top of the charts across the board. Seems like a pretty straight forward night, which means it won’t be. Jimmy Butler is the top value pick based on my model. He has been great over the last ten games and has the second highest cash game rating and the highest GPP rating. If you are sick of playing butler, Kawhi Leonard is in a nice spot against the Suns, but I am worried this game may get out of hand or Leonard may sit. If that’s true, then Kevin Durant is a nice pick against the Knicks tonight. He has been averaging 1.36 points per minute over the last 10 games and could end up with the highest points total on the night. Top projections are Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George.
Target DvP: NOPE
Stay Away DvP: NONE
Here is the position where lineups are made on the night. At PF there aren’t too many high level value plays, so you may need to get a bit creative. David Lee is the top of the charts tonight against the Suns, however, if Aldridge is going to play I am concerned with the amount of minutes Lee may be able to get. He is only averaging 18 minutes a game over his last ten, but averaging .92 points per minute in that limited time. If you are concerned about his minutes, Thaddeus Young is a solid pick against the Pelicans. He has lost a little bit of his thunder after the trade, but plays a high enough volume of minutes to hit value on most nights. He is a solid cash game play. Nikola Jokic is in the best statistical position of the night and has been on fire over the last 10 games. He plays a healthy amount of minutes and could be a nice addition to your lineup. Top projections on the night are Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis, Draymond Green, and Lamarcus Aldridge.
Target DvP: NOP, NYK, POR, CHI
Stay Away DvP: SAS
The best statistical defenses to have a guy go against can be found at center tonight. Myles Turner stays at the top of the charts tonight with the highest cash game rating of any center. Turner had a solid night last night, but played 37 minutes. His minutes can fluctuate and I am worried he may only get 28 tonight. If you are worried about him in the tail end of a back to back, John Henson has some nice value against the Bulls. The Bulls give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing centers and Henson has been playing well in limited time. If you see Henson getting an uptick in minutes tonight, he is a clear cut play. Robin Lopez is in an OK spot tonight against the Bucks, but is a decent value play if you are trying to spend your salary in a guard or forward position. The Bucks are better than average at defending opposing center, but Lopez can get his points in multiple ways. Only concern would be foul trouble. Top projections on the night are Myles Turner, Mason Plumlee, Pau Gasol, and Robin Lopez.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
About the Author:
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.