Finding Value: NBA 12/19 by @
I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play NBA on Fan Duel than Draft Kings.**
*Note* If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player. For Draft Kings, If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. For Fan Duel, if a player has a $PP less than 230 he’s undervalued and over 230 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200/230 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Link to spreadsheet:
Password is DRS
Target DvP: ATL, CHI, IND
Stay Away DvP: DAL
Russell Westbrook rises to the top of the charts tonight, as the Hawks have been poor at defending opposing point guards over the season and over the last 10 games. The only way you want to avoid Westbrook is if you are in a GPP and you want to be completely contrarian. In that case you will want to pivot to John Wall who is the second most valued player tonight. Wall is in a worse position than Westbrook, but either would be a great option tonight. If you are completely avoiding those high priced players, Rajan Rondo and Ish Smith are two mid-level guys that are well priced. Smith is in a much better position defensively speaking, but Rondo plays more minutes and is a safer play. Top projections on the night are Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, and Jeff Teague.
Target DvP: IND, DEN, ATL, MIN
Stay Away DvP: PHO, DET
It seems like every other night we have good situations or bad situations on the whole at shooting guard. Tonight is a good situation night. Seth Curry comes in as one of the most valued shooting guards against the Nuggets. The Nuggets haven’t been great at defending opposing shooting guards and Curry is at a low enough price level to hit value easily. If you are worried about production or minutes, then Bradley Beal is a great option against the Pacers. They have been horrid over the last 10 games at defending the position and Beal is coming off a great game. Look for Beal to put up a lot of points tonight. If you are looking for some more options both Wesley Matthews and Zach LaVine are high volume minutes players. Matthews is in a WAY better spot than LaVine, but both could be decent options. Top projections are Bradley Beal, Dwayne Wade, Zach LaVine, and Wesley Matthews.
Target DvP: MIN
Stay Away DvP: NONE
There are really no target situations at SF today, however, let’s try to find some decent value. Andrew Wiggins and Jimmy Butler are the two top level salary guys priced well tonight. Wiggins is in a better statistical spot than Butler, but Butler is a little more consistent at scoring fantasy points. Both play about the same amount of minutes and would be nice pickups in both cash and GPP. If you are looking to spend less then Marcus Morris, and Andre Roberson are solid value options. Morris has every advantage statistically and is playing a worse defense than Roberson is tonight. However, it always comes down to construction and salary when trying to pick the right player. Top projections on the night are Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Andrew Wiggins, and Wilson Chandler.
Target DvP: NONE
Stay Away DvP: NONE
There are not too many good matchups for players on tonight’s slate, about every defense has been performing pretty well. Markeiff Morris, Gorgui Dieng, and Thaddeus Young are all names to consider tonight. There is nothing different about any of the three statistically or who they are playing, but I will say my deciding factor would be looking at the Vegas lines of each of the games. Young/Dieng may benefit more from a lower paced game because they can get more rebounds and be more involved on both sides of the floor. If you are looking for a higher level player, Paul Millsap is about the only option. He is in a pretty good spot tonight, but is a little more overpriced based on production than others at the 8k range. Top projections on the night are Paul Millsap, Gorgui Dieng, Nikola Jokic, and Tobais Harris.
Target DvP: NONE
Stay Away DvP: DET, ATL
Center is going to be difficult tonight to grab. The positive is that all of the highest projections are pretty well priced. I think it really comes down to looking at Marcin Gortat vs. Karl Anthony-Towns and seeing what your salary allows. Both play a high volume of minutes and are in the same statistical spot, if you are playing a GPP then Towns is a better option. However, in cash both would be fine depending on salary. Top projections are Karl-Anthony Towns, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, and Marcin Gortat.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
About the Author:
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.