NBA Fanduel Value Plays 12/7 by
Chris Hollander @
**Please Read – I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play NBA on Fan Duel than Draft Kings. The Link to the spreadsheet has both Fan Duel and Draft Kings in separate tabs, but the writing is based on Fan Duel.**
*Note* If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player. For Draft Kings, If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. For Fan Duel, if a player has a $PP less than 230 he’s undervalued and over 230 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200/230 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: BKN, ATL, CLE, IND
Stay Away DvP: DAL, MIL, LAL, HOU, MIA
There are a ton of games tonight, so it could be difficult to make decisions on who is the best play. Tyler Johnson is at the top of the list against a Hawks team that has struggled to defend the PG position all year. He is averaging 30 minutes a game and has had a decent PPM through the last 10 games. His ceiling isn’t the best in the world but he could give you a chance to grab a higher valued player. Goran Dragic is at the top of the list after a phenomenal night. He is one of the top cash game plays and has been playing well as of late. If you are looking for who has played well over the last ten games then Chris Paul and Isaiah Thomas are both averaging over 1.15 points per minute for a decent price tonight. The top 3 projections on the night (not based on price) are Chris Paul, Isaiah Thomas, and Kemba Walker who are all fairly priced.
*Note* Isaiah Thomas is OUT for the Celtics tonight.
Marcus Smart is the probable starter as of now (11:00am). He will be one of the most popular value plays on the slate tonight.
Target DvP: HOU, DEN, LAL
Stay Away DvP: ORL, DET
Sean Kilpatrick moves to the most undervalued shooting guard of the night against the Nuggets. The Nuggets have struggled to stop opposing shooting guards and Kilpatrick has performed well in recent games. Kilpatrick has a shot to really light it up and could be a nice addition to any lineup tonight. Lou Williams is in a great spot tonight against the Rockets and we know missing a few shots will not harm his confidence. Williams is scoring 1.13 points per minute over his last ten games and has a really nice ceiling at $6,100. James Harden comes in as the top PPM leader over the last 10 games at 1.41. There could be an argument made that he has to be played in cash games tonight against the Lakers. Jodie Meeks is an interesting grab for the price, he really isn’t grabbing many minute, but he is averaging 1.09 points per minute over the last 3 games. Impossibly to put him in a cash game lineup, but he may be worth a flier especially if you think this game will get out of hand. Top 3 projections on the night (not based on price) are James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo and C.J. McCollum.
Target DvP: LAL, CHA, PHO
Stay Away DvP: ORL, DET, GSW
Wilson Chandler jumps to the top tonight against the Nets, who have struggled to guard opposing small forwards all year. Chandler has been playing well and has a nice ceiling for the price, he is a safer GPP play than Cash in my opinion. Trevor Ariza, along with the rest of the Rockets, are in a high scoring opportunity tonight against the Lakers. He isn’t someone who is going to blow it out of the water, but he plays enough minutes to give the opportunity to hit average with no problems. LeBron James is in a good situation tonight against the Knicks with a lot to prove. He has been great over the last 10 games and has one of the top projections on the night, however, he does not have the best value in the world. Top 3 projections on the night (not based on price) are Lebron James, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony.
Target DvP: POR, LAL
Stay Away DvP: DET, MIA, NYK
When it comes to value, power forward has some decent options tonight. Jabari Parker is one of the top value players at any position against the Trail Blazers. They have struggled to stop opposing Power Forwards and Parker has been decent on PPM over the last ten games. Jared Dudley could be a nice flier against the Pacers if he can log some decent minutes and gets hot behind the arc. However, Dudley is all over the road and there is not a sure fire bet with him. Kenneth Faried is in a decent game tonight against the Nets. If he can log 25+ minutes, I really like his chances of scoring a strong amount of points tonight for the price. However, last game he only had 13 minutes against the 76ers be aware of that. Serge Ibaka is in a good matchup tonight against the Celtics. However, his minutes tend to decrease on back to backs so I would be very careful on using him in a cash game situation. Top 3 projections on the night (not based on price) are Blake Griffin, Jabari Parker, and Draymond Green.
Target DvP: NYK
Stay Away DvP: MEM
The difficult part of Fan Duel, in my opinion, is trying to get the center spot correct. You got one shot! There are some decent options tonight, but the question is, will you be going for value? Or will you be going for point? Let’s try to get both. Tristan Thompson is in the best situation tonight for the best price at center. He has been averaging around 30 minutes a game and has a decent .85 points per minute. This game may end up being a slightly lower scoring game, this favors the style of play for Thompson who grabs boards to score points. If you are worried about him, which I completely understand, Clint Capela has a good situation tonight and scores way more PPM at 1.08 over the last 10 games. Capela is a consistent player, but over the last 3 games his minutes have dipped a little to around 23 a game. Away from those two, Al Horford is averaging 1.15 PPM and is playing around 33 minutes, if you wanna stay away from Cousins he is a great option for both cash and GPP. Top 3 projections on the night (not based on price) are DeMarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside, and Al Horford.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander @
About the Author:
NBA/PGA/MLB Content Provider
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.