Finding Value NFL Week 15
by Chris Hollander @
**Please Read – This is NFL information for both Draft Kings and Fan Duel.**
*Note* If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app to get the most up to date information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: WAS, PHI, LAR, MIA
Stay Away DvP: DET, DEN
Trevor Siemian jumps to the top of the charts again this week. After a bad first half, Siemian put together a nice second against the Titans, the only issue was that the Broncos couldn’t put the ball in the end zone. I know he is going against a pretty decent Patriots defense, but Siemian has put up some nice numbers against similar defenses in the last couple of weeks. Ryan Tannehill comes in second on the charts against the Jets. The Jets have been giving up quite a few points to quarterbacks over the last four games and Tannehill has been trending up over that period as well. At a nice price tag on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings, Tannehill may be difficult to pass up. Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco are well priced this weekend; however, Flacco is in a better statistical spot that Cousins. The Eagles have struggled to stop passing offenses over the last four weeks (Flacco is at a much better price on Draft Kings than Fan Duel). Top projections are Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Cam Newton.
Target DvP: BUF, SFO, LAR
Stay Away DvP: SEA, TBB, TEN, SDC
Le-Veon Bell sits at the top of the value charts on Fan Duel, while being a little overpriced on Draft Kings. However, Bell does have the highest projection on the week. Bell is not in the best spot statistically and it’s much easier to get away from him this week, unlike last. If you are trying to get away from Bell, Devonta Freeman is at a nice price tag against the 49ers. However, Freeman came out with a pretty horrible game last week considering the Falcons absolutely destroyed. Speaking of the Falcons, Carlos Hyde is in a nice matchup and price against the Falcons. Over the past few weeks he has played well, and looks to continue that trend in a good matchup. If you are looking for lower priced players at running back, Isaiah Crowell is in a nice spot against the Bills. They have been a little worse than average at defending running backs this year and he could easily grab you 10-15 points. Top projections on the week are Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, and Tevin Coleman.
Target DvP: TEN, DAL, PHI, SFO
Stay Away DvP: JAC, ATL, TBB, CHI, NYG, DET
Tyreek Hill is at the top of the charts after a nice week last week. Hill has been doing well over the last four games and plays a bad Titans receiving defense. His targets have been over 6 in the past few games and he should be a fairly good pick. If Julio and Sanu are back out then Taylor Gabriel is a great pick again. However, you need to monitor their progress because if one or both are in it will limit his touches. Michael Thomas is set at a fair price against the Cards this weekend. The Saints have not been very good over the last couple games, but neither have the Cardinals. Will this be the week that we see Drew Brees break out of his slump? I am not sure, but I do know if he does Thomas will be the main benefactor of his production. Top projections on the weekend are Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, and Taylor Gabriel/Julio Jones (whichever plays).
Target DvP: MIA, GBP, DAL, CIN, WAS, NYG
Stay Away DvP: CLE, DEN, WAS, MIA, HOU
Jordan Reed comes in with the most valuable TE rating of the weekend. He is at a great price and is in a fantastic matchup against the Panthers who have struggled to guard the position all year. On the other side of the ball, Greg Olsen is in a similar matchup against the Redskins. I think that Cam Newton should be locked in for the rest of the year and Olsen will be his safe guard. I like either or both of these guys this weekend. Cameron Brate is a great low level option against Dallas, especially on Draft Kings. Jameis Winston has always loved throwing to tight ends, especially in the red zone. Brate seems to be a nice safe guard for Winston when he isn’t trying to get the ball to Mike Evans. Top projections on the weekend are Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, and Cameron Brate.
The Seattle Seahawks are the staple of cash game lineups going against the Rams. The Rams are in shambles and the Seahawks need this win, look for the defense to step up hard. The Bills are at a great price against the Cleveland Browns this weekend. The Bills have been playing pretty well over the past few games, other than against Bell, and look to continue that trend. The bright side is that the Browns have a poor running game, look for the Bills to exploit that.
This would only be for FD, and I really hate talking about Kickers. I really like Dustin Hopkins this weekend against the Panthers. I think the Redskins will end up having to kick quite a few field goals because they won’t be able to get in the end zone. If you are just looking for pure opportunity, the Falcons could end up getting to the other side of the field a lot against the 49ers. Therefore, Matt Bryant would end up getting a few more opportunities than normal. Lastly, Justin Tucker seems to kick tons of field goals each game and is always worth a look.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander @UndoneRSG
About the Author:
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.