Variance in baseball is more common than in any other sport. We’ve all heard it by now, but even the greatest hitters in the game like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper can go 0-5 from the plate. Sometimes it’s just one game, but other times that rough patch continues for a week or more. With player salaries changing day to day based on player performance, finding those guys with a positive regression coming is vital. However, it is just as important to see the other side as well and find the guys who are getting lucky and balancing on the edge of a full on regression.
1B – Miguel Cabrera (DET) – $4,300 DK / $3,900 FD
It is important to note that Cabrera was pulled just before game-time last night due to stiffness in his side. He is considered day-to-day, so make sure to check lineups. Cabrera is smoking the ball this season, especially in the past two weeks. Overall on the season, Miggy is in the top ten in average exit velocity in the league at 93.6mph. In the past 14 days, Cabrera ranks 3rd in the league with a hard contact rate of 59.3%. His 37.0FB% is respectable and of all of his fly balls, exactly zero have been contained in the infield. With some of the hardest contact in the entire league, and 100% of his fly balls heading into the outfield, it makes no sense why Cabrera has 0 homeruns in the past two weeks. The weather tomorrow afternoon will be in the mid-80s in Detroit with 20mph winds expected out to left field where Cabrera pulls the ball. Only cracking double digit Fanduel points in two of his previous eleven games, ownership will be lower than it should be.
P – Julio Teheran (ATL) – $8,800 DK / $8,200 FD
Teheran hasn’t had the start to the season that many expected from him. A lack of control appears to be the top issue as his 11.0BB% this season is well above his career average of 6.8%. To go along with the added base on balls, his strikeout rate has dipped over 6% from last season. At just a 16.9K% in eight starts this season, Teheran isn’t able to accrue the strikeout fantasy points we all loved him for in previous seasons. But when looking at the teams he has matched up against this season, seven of his eight starts have come against teams in the top ten of lowest K%. The one start he did face a team outside of the top ten was against the St. Louis Cardinals who are ranked 13th. The Toronto Blue Jays will be a welcome relief for Teheran not only because they strikeout at a greater clip than he has seen all season, but they also take fewer walks than any team he has faced all season. With Marcus Stroman on the mound for Toronto and Teheran’s slow start to the season, ownership levels should be fairly minimal.
OF – Domingo Santana (MIL) – $3,900 DK / $3,400 FD
Domingo Santana is having a 14-day stretch that is quite remarkable in two different ways. First of all, Santana is batting .405 going 17/42 from the plate. Aside from those 17 hits, Santana has 25 other AB’s in this time frame during which, he is striking out at a 30.9% clip. When Santana makes contact he is reaching base 58.6% of the time! That .586 BABIP is unrealistic and impossible to sustain for much longer. Tomorrow Santana will face off against Trevor Cahill in San Diego. Believe it or not, Cahill has 6+ strikeouts in every single one of his starts this season, including a 9K performance at Chase Field against Arizona! With a strikeout pitcher, in a pitchers park, Santana will have trouble putting the ball into play with his already poor strikeout rate. And when it is put into play, do not expect much because while he has a .586 BABIP, he only has two extra base hits.
P – Dylan Bundy (BAL) – $9,100 DK / $8,300 FD
Bundy’s advanced stats show that he is a slightly better than average pitcher in the league this season. His contact ratings are average or slightly above with a 26.0SC%, 43.3MC%, and 30.7HC%. His strikeout rate of 18.1% is nothing to write home about, and a 6.0BB% is a nice stat to have. He has an 84.7LOB%, which seems high, but compared to his career average of 82.1% there isn’t too great a gap this season compared to his others. Where the numbers get screwy is when we look at his 2.26ERA. Bundy has seen his salary climb on up almost to top tier territory on DraftKings and it’s getting a little too high for his upside or floor. With a SIERA of 4.52 and an xFIP of 4.46, Bundy supporters should take caution. Today he faces off against a hot Detroit offense that can hit the ball harder than almost any other team in the entire league.
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About the Author:
Jonathan has always loved finding those interesting sports stats and sharing them with those around him. When he came across DFS back in 2010 he was instantly hooked realizing his vast sports stat knowledge could pay off. After playing a variety of DFS sports, the NHL is where he found his greatest success. Jonathan focuses most of his time as a cash game player, but does enjoy the occasional GPP.