Thursday brings us another split slate, so I am going to write up a couple of my favorite stacks from each. I will also give you my favorite pitchers to go along with them. Last season I won over 30k stacking my favorite teams every day, I hope I can help you do the same! Let’s get started.
Top Stacks (EARLY)
The Orioles get one of the best matchups of the day as they take on Jordan Zimmerman and the Detroit Tigers. Zimmerman used to be a decent pitcher but has completely fallen off a cliff this season. He no longer strikes people out (12.6% K-Rate), he gives up a crazy amount of hard contact (42.3% hard contact) which as a flyball pitcher (48.1% fly ball rate) turns into a lot of homeruns (2.09 HR/9). If Zimmerman struggles today (which I assume he will), the Orioles could be in for a huge day as the Tigers have one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball (5.31 ERA, 28th in MLB). I really love all of the Orioles today but Seth Smith ($3600DK,$3000FD) in that leadoff spot who crushes righties (.376 wOBA) and Chris Davis ($4600DK,$3800FD)who has 4 HR’s in his last 4 games really standout to me as elite plays.
The Rangers get a great matchup on Thursday as they face off with rookie Nick Pivetta and the Philadelphia Phillies. Pivetta does not seem ready for the big leagues and has really struggled so far, posting a 6.14 ERA, while giving up a 45.8% hard contact rate and 3.07 HR/9. Its going to be a hot day in Texas (85 degrees getting hotter thru the game) giving the hitters a nice boost. The Rangers have a very deep lineup with plenty of guys that can hurt Pivetta and they are all very reasonably priced around the Industry. My favorites here today are Nomar Mazara ($4200DK,$3400FD) Joey Gallo ($4200DK,$3000FD) and Rougned Odor ($4100DK,$2900FD) who all have big upside in this matchup.
Tanner Roark ($8900DK,$8200FD)
This is an ugly slate for pitching, and Roark is a guy I almost never play but today he is my second favorite pitcher. Roark is a guy that isn’t elite at anything but it pretty solid across the board (20.3% K-Rate, 27.6% hard contact rate, 46.9% GB Rate) and should be pretty safe in this kind of matchup. The Pirates have been a really bad offense so far this season (3.70 runs per/game 27th in MLB) and present almost 0 power against righties (.130 ISO, 29th in MLB) so again this should be a pretty safe matchup. The ballpark is also favorable for Roark as PNC Park is a very good pitchers park. The win should also be there today as the Pirates are throwing rookie Tyler Glasnow who has 0 control (I easily could have wrote about stacking the Nats but they are really expensive)and the Nats should give Roark plenty of run support. Roark may not have elite upside in this matchup but should be a good bet to give you a solid outing which should be all you need on this slate.
Ervin Santana ($7400DK,$9300FD)
Santana is really really underpriced on DraftKings and honestly feels like a misprice (maybe because of the rainout yesterday). Erv has been very good this season, posting a 1.50 ERA, a .128 ave against and is only giving up 25.9% hard contact rate. Now he is not this good of course and regression is coming for him (.128 BABIP, 98.4% LOB) but I don’t think it will be today. He gets a matchup with a Rockies team that is not the same away from Coors Field (4.7 runs/9 at home, 4.0 on road) and they strikeout a fair bit against righties (22.7% K-Rate). The weather is also favorable for Santana as it will be a chilly day in Minnesota (50 degrees at first pitch). The bottom line here is Santana is just way too cheap for how good he is in a good matchup and he is my favorite pitcher on this slate.
Top Stacks (MAIN)
The Mariners get the best matchup all day as they take on maybe the worst pitcher in all of baseball in rookie Dylan Covey and the Chicago White Sox. Just how bad is Covey? Well he cant strike anybody out (14.4% K-Rate) he walks way too many (9.4% Walk Rate), he can’t get anybody out (.336 ave against) and he gives up a ton of home runs (2.76 HR/9). The Mariners are pretty solid as a team against right handed pitching (.332 wOBA 8th in MLB) and have the highest team total on this slate (4.8 runs). All of the Mariners are in play today but my favorite is Kyle Seager ($4200DK,$3600FD) who has 2 home runs in his last 3 games and is way to cheap for this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers get a great matchup on Thursday night as they take on veteran gascan Edinson Volquez and the Miami Marlins. Volquez is a guy that really struggles with lefties (.399 wOBA, 46.8% hard contact rate, 1.71 HR/9) and what do we know about the Dodgers? They have a ton of great lefties! This is the perfect matchup for the Dodgers and I expect them to crush Volquez. Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal and Cody Bellinger are all in great spots. I wouldn’t be afraid to throw in Justin Turner either as we know he has reverse splits and has just been great so far this season. Boy that’s a pretty good looking 5 man stack!
Julio Teheran ($8800DK,$8200FD)
Another slate with limited pitching options Teheran is my favorite. He has several things working for him today. The matchup is really good as the Blue Jays have been terrible so far this season (4.05 runs/9 25th in MLB) and especially against righties (.296 wOBA, 26th in MLB). They also lose their DH coming into this National League park, which will probably be on of their best hitters (either Morales or Smoak). Teheran is awesome against right handed batters (.224 wOBA against, 21.5% hard contact rate) and what lefty in the Jays lineup scares you? Especially without Morales in the lineup? Chris Coughlan? Ryan Goins? I don’t think so and Teheran should be perfectly safe in this matchup.
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9100DK,$7100FD)
I thought about putting Stroman in this spot but I hate rostering 2 pitchers going against each other and he feels a bit overpriced. Ryu on the other hand is a huge favorite today (-180) and gets a matchup with a Marlins team that just had to fly across the country yesterday and may suffer from some jetlag. Ryu has been pretty solid this year especially at home in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium (34% K-Rate, 26.9% hard contact rate). The Marlins are not an offense to fear (4.13 runs per game, 23rd in MLB) and I expect Ryu to have a solid game tonight.