NBA 11-10 Value Hunting

There is value everywhere on FanDuel! It’ll be harder to come by on DraftKings, but there are still a few diamonds in the rough.

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Value Plays

Lunch time value!

As usual, here are some below 5K guys I’m looking at.

One of my favorite plays under 5K right now is Marcus Morris. I like him A LOT more if Jasyon Tatum doesn’t play and on DK only. His minutes aren’t the only thing that have increased in each game; as his shot attempts went from eight, to 10, to 15—which correlates with his steady usage which has peaked at 26 over his last two games. Last year, this guy averaged 14 points, 4.6 boards, and two dimes across 32 minutes per game. He’s up higher in the offensive pecking order with the absence of Gordon Hayward (and definitely Al Horford tonight). So if Tatum misses out, this guy will be chucking again, and could potentially see 30 minutes. I like him as a candidate to exceed 5x IF TATUM IS OUT!

I think it’s a decent night to go back to the well with a few guys who clunked during their last appearance. One of them is Alex Len (who is slightly cheaper on FanDuel). He’s in ply ONLY if Tyson Chandler is OUT. The Magic are really pushing the pace this season, which is appealing on its own. Additionally, they’re giving up sixth most rebounds and fifth-most real points to centers this season. If you’re eating and want to throw up your lunch, here are Len’s numbers with 28 + minutes against Orlando over the last three years:

3/17/17: 28 mins 9 points 9 rebounds, 2 blocks

11/23/16: 34 mins, 17 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks

3/4/16: 35 mins, 31 points, 15 rebounds, 2 blocks

12/9/15: 36 mins, 20 points, 14 rebounds, 3 blocks

Anyone can look like a superstar against Brooklyn, and tonight might be Evan Turner’s time to pretend he’s Magic Johnson. He’s seeing the minutes lately, but usage is slightly down and peripherals aren’t there. However, he’s been locked up by Memphis, Utah, and OKC (PG13 + Roberson) in there of those games. Now he has a cake matchup with Brooklyn. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 32 minutes per game (which is exactly what he is seeing over his last five games THIS season) and 29.54 DK points. The more important thing is that the peripherals are there against BK, as expected. During the sequence, he has averaged 7.2 rebounds and four assists—to go along with his 13 points per game. He’s in play on both sites and is a good way to get cheap, but meaningful exposure against Brooklyn.

Here’s a list of some other guys (as of 1 p.m.) that you can make a case for:

Aron Baynes $4300 (DK)

Patty Mills $3900 (DK)

Dwayne Dedmon $4200 (DK)

Collins $5100 (DK, might troll the world tonight)

Daniel Theis (Super GPP on both sites, only had one stinker in games he’s played at least 18 minutes.)

MCW $3000 (Basically min price, 20 mins last game, crack your beer early)

Jared Dudley & Marqueese Chris (Super GPP; Up tempo, chance of Len foul trouble again, also potential blowout run)