NBA Draftkings Value Plays 12/12 by @
**Please Read – I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play NBA on Fan Duel than Draft Kings. The Link to the spreadsheet has both Fan Duel and Draft Kings in separate tabs, but the writing is based on Fan Duel.**
*Note* If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player. For Draft Kings, If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. For Fan Duel, if a player has a $PP less than 230 he’s undervalued and over 230 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200/230 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: BKN, DEN
Stay Away DvP: DAL, LAC, MIL, MIA, SAC
Patrick Beverley jumps to the top of the charts tonight against a struggling Nets squad. He has been playing well over the last three games and looks to continue that trend tonight against the Nets. Second, Kemba Walker is at the top of the charts, but it is not clear if he will be playing tonight. If he does, he is in a decent matchup and a great price point against the Pacers. On the other side of the bench, Jeff Teague is in a nice spot against the Hornets, especially if Walker is ruled out tonight. Teague has been averaging 1.11 points per minute over the last ten. Two other low level options are Tyler Johnson and Darren Collison with Collison being in a better spot and Johnson playing better over the last 10. Top projections on the night are Chris Paul, John Wall, Damian Lillard, and Kemba Walker.
Target DvP: LAL, IND, DEN, MIA
Stay Away DvP: TOR, WAS
Seth Curry is at the top of my value list today. Over the past two games he has played 25 minutes and he is an obvious GPP consideration rather than a cash. I only think you could put him one of your least optimal lineups, but there is always a chance. If Kemba Walker is ruled out, then Jeremy Lamb is a clear cut choice for cash and GPPs. He is in a great spot against the Pacers and has been averaging 1.13 points per minute over his last ten games. Another nice matchup is for Wesley Matthews against the Nuggets. Matthews isn’t a top PPM guy because of his lack of boards and assists, but if he gets hot he is always in for a nice night. If you are looking for a more solid choice then Nicholas Batum or Lou Williams are great choices. Batum is in a great matchup and could be the primary scoring option tonight. Top projections are James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nicholas Batum.
Target DvP: BKN, CHA, MIA
Stay Away DvP: TOR, WAS
There aren’t too many dream matchups tonight at small forward, but there are a couple of decent plays. Otto Porter is in a nice spot tonight against the Heat and has been playing an insane amount of minutes. Porter is one of the top GPP projections and has the highest projection above implied. Trevor Ariza, much like the majority of the Rockets, is in a nice spot tonight. He is not the biggest points per minute guy in the world, but does play a ton of minutes to make up for it. Rudy Gay is in a great spot tonight against the Lakers who are on the tail end of a back to back. Last, Paul George is in a fantastic spot tonight against the Hornets and has been a man on fire over the last 10 games. He may be the staple of many cash games tonight. Top projections are Paul George, Rudy Gay, Otto Porter, and Wilson Chandler.
Target DvP: LAL, POR, MIL
Stay Away DvP: NONE
Marreese Speights jumps to the top of the charts tonight against the Trail Blazers, I really don’t know how. Speights is only averaging 15.7 minutes per game over the last ten, but 1.14 points per minute. If Griffin is out again, look to Speights to fill in the roll tonight. Speaking of Blake Griffin, if he plays, he is in a fantastic spot and has the highest cash game rating of anyone on the slate. He has been averaging an insane 1.22 points per minute over his last ten. If you are worried about the Clippers then Jabari Parker may be a nice pickup. Parker was dreadful the last time he played, the Raptors are not the best matchup, but I think he will want to play a little better than last game. Frank Kaminsky could be a sneaky pick against the Pacers if he can log around 27 minutes. It’s not a sure thing, but I think if you see a few people injured for the Hornets you need to be all over him. If there aren’t a few injuries, you can shelf this idea. Top projections on the night are Blake Griffin, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, and Trevor Booker.
Target DvP: BKN, LAL
Stay Away DvP: NONE
There are a lot of elite projections tonight for center, which sucks because we can only choose one. Clint Capela is in a solid spot tonight against the Nets and has been playing well over the last ten games with a 1.10 points per minute. If you are sick of hearing about Rockets and Hornets, then DeMarcus Cousins is your guy. He has the highest projection on the night and the second best cash game rating. If you are looking for cheaper value then Marcin Gortat is in a good spot against the Heat tonight and could easily be played in both cash and GPP. Top projections are DeMarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside, Brook Lopez, and DeAndre Jordan.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
About the Author:
NBA/PGA/MLB Content Provider
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.