Finding Value: NBA 12/13 by @
**Please Read – I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play NBA on Fan Duel than Draft Kings. The Link to the spreadsheet has both Fan Duel and Draft Kings in separate tabs, but the writing is based on Fan Duel.**
*Note* If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player. For Draft Kings, If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. For Fan Duel, if a player has a $PP less than 230 he’s undervalued and over 230 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200/230 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: ATL, CLE, NOP
Stay Away DvP: NONE
Elfrid Payton moves up to the top of the charts tonight against the Hawks. However, over the last three games Payton has not been very reliable and could easily drop a 15 point game. Be careful with this pick, I believe he is only a GPP consideration for tonight. Second on the value chart is Rajan Rondo against the Timberwolves. He has been playing well over the past 10 games and is a solid choice in a GPP or Cash game situation. Russell Westbrook is at a great price for his production tonight. The guy is an easy pick for a cash game and a good pick for a GPP situation. Top projections on the night are Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, and Eric Bledsoe.
Target DvP: NONE
Stay Away DvP: NONE
Shooting guard will be one of the tougher positions to fill with value or high plays tonight. Therefore, I recommend going with a guy that has the biggest ceiling. The value plays, based on my model, are Brandon Knight against the Knicks. The issue with Knight is that he does not get the minutes to be a huge factor. He is actually playing well, points per minute wise, and is one of the top PPM players on the slate. If you want someone who is going to get you more minutes, Zach LaVine is a solid pick against the Bulls. The Bulls are about average on defending the position and LaVine is at a decent price. Evan Fournier is in the best spot statistically, but which Fournier will we get? In addition to those, Victor Oladipo is a high volume minutes guy, but the Trail Blazers have been better than average at defending the position. Top projections on the night are CJ McCollum, Dwayne Wade, Klay Thompson, and Zach LaVine.
Target DvP: MIN
Stay Away DvP: CLE, MEM
Finally, a high level player at value. Jimmy Butler is the top projection for small forwards and at the best price point. Butler has had 1.17 points per minute over the last ten games and comes in against the worse small forward defense on the slate. He has the highest cash game rating and always has the opportunity to do well in a GPP scenario. In addition, I like that he does not rely purely on scoring to get his points. If you want to pivot from him then Carmelo Anthony is in a good spot against the Suns. He has been playing decently over the last ten, but always has a chance to drop 30-40 points if the situation is right. If you are looking for someone a little cheaper then Andrew Wiggins is in an okay spot tonight. The Bulls are pretty decent at defending the small forward, but Wiggins should be able to play enough minutes to make up for his decrease in production over the last 10 games. Top projections on the night are Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Carmelo Anthony.
Target DvP: POR
Stay Away DvP: NONE
Enes Kanter comes up at the best PF play on the slate tonight. He is not averaging enough minutes to consider a solid cash game play, but in GPP scenarios he is alright if you need a filler. He is averaging 1.17 points per minute and is in a good spot tonight against the Trail Blazer. If you are looking for more minutes, Draymond Green is at a great price finally. The Pelicans have not been great on defending his position and he is one of the top plays tonight because of that fact. Kristaps Porzingis is at a good price tonight against the average Suns. Look for him to score mid to upper 30s in a tight game. Last, Anthony Davis has the highest projection for power forwards tonight. He is averaging 1.42 points per minute and has the largest ceiling on the slate. Top projections on the night are Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis, Draymond Green, and Kevin Love.
Target DvP: NOP, POR, NYK, CHI
Stay Away DvP: MEM, ATL
Not too many centers to choose from tonight. Zaza Pachulia comes in as the top play; however, his minutes aren’t enough to consider cash game worthy. I could see him being utilized if you are trying to stack a Davis/Westbrook team. Robin Lopez has a nice price tag tonight, but if I am going a center in that game, Karl–Anthony Towns is my guy. Towns has been on fire as of late and with how the Bulls defend the perimeter, could be in store for some extra touches tonight. If you are worried about that game, then Steven Adams is in the best statistical position of the night. He is priced a little higher than I would like, but is a nice pickup for a cash game. Top projections on the night are Karl–Anthony Towns, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, and Nikola Vucevic.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
About the Author:
NBA/PGA/MLB Content Provider
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.