NBA Draftkings Value Plays 12/9 by @
**Please Read – I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play NBA on Fan Duel than Draft Kings. The Link to the spreadsheet has both Fan Duel and Draft Kings in separate tabs, but the writing is based on Fan Duel.**
*Note* If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player. For Draft Kings, If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. For Fan Duel, if a player has a $PP less than 230 he’s undervalued and over 230 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200/230 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Target DvP: ATL, CLE, IND
Stay Away DvP: DAL, MIL, MIA, HOU
Matthew Dellavedova jumps to the top of the charts tonight against the Hawks. They have struggled to defend opposing point guards over the season and especially over the last 10 games. The only question is how many minutes will he get? If you don’t believe he will get enough minutes then Tyler Johnson or Goran Dragic are in great situations against the Cavs tonight. Both are valued at the same with Dragic being projected at 10 more points. Jordan Clarkson has been logging a ton of minutes and is in a decent spot against the Suns tonight; however, he has been pretty shaky and can only be considered as a flier in a GPP. Kemba Walker is in a good spot tonight against the Magic, if you are pivoting off Westbrook then he is a solid choice tonight. Top projections are Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker, and Goran Dragic.
Target DvP: LAL
Stay Away DvP: TOR, ORL, DET
Brandon Knight somehow is at the top of my list tonight against the Lakers. He has been playing pretty solid over the last 4 games and has a good opportunity to continue that trend tonight. His issue is minutes, but hopefully he can log more than 25. Wayne Ellington has a decent spot against the Cavs and has been playing over 33 minutes over his last 10 games. He could be a solid pickup tonight. Lastly, I really like the position Victor Oladipo is in, but he is slightly overvalued compared to some other options tonight. The Rockets are one of the worst teams at guarding opposing SGs and he can pour buckets in on certain KNIGHTS (get it). Top projections on the night are Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, and DeMar Derozen.
Target DvP: LAL, CHA, MIA, MIN, PHO
Stay Away DvP: ORL, DET, TOR
Seems like there is not much value tonight, and small forward is hard to get any as well. However, Kent Bazemore is at the top of the list, but I really haven’t been too happy with how he has played over the last few games. His minutes have decreased and he would really be more of a GPP player. Andre Robertson has seen an increase in minutes, but is not a top option in the Thunder offense and can really only be considered a filler in Cash lineups. LeBron James is the top target tonight at a huge projection in a phenomenal spot against his old team. I really like his situation tonight, but if you are trying to get away from him Rudy Gay is a decent pivot. He isn’t in the best situation DvP wise, but he has been logging a nice set of minutes and can easily hit his implied value for 300 total points. Top projections on the night are LeBron James, Rudy Gay, and Carmelo Anthony.
Target DvP: LAL, BOS
Stay Away DvP: ATL
Alex Len stays at the top of the power forward spot because of his action over the last 10 games; however, with Chandler back I have seen a huge decrease in minutes from Len. I would stay away and move to other options such as Jared Dudley. Dudley is not the best cash game play, but he could be worth a nice look at a GPP. The Lakers have struggled to stop opposing forwards and Dudley has the capability of throwing in a few threes to hit value. If you are looking for a top salary guy then Kristaps Prozingis is in a decent situation and has been logging a ton of minutes as of late. The only issue would be a worry for foul trouble against Boogie and the Kings. Top projections on the night are Kristaps Porzingis, Paul Millsap, and Kevin Love.
Target DvP: NYK, LAL, MIA, IND
Stay Away DvP: MIN, ATL
It is going to be close to impossible to move off Cousins in cash, you could argue to do it in a GPP situation. But Cousins is in the best spot of any center tonight against the Knicks. If you are looking to go a different direction then Tristan Thompson is at a nice price against the Heat tonight. However, Thompson is limited to his ability of rebounding and his points will not inflate due to scoring a ton of points. If you want a more complete player you could easily pivot to Whiteside against the Cavs, but with Lebron playing against the Heat I would be interested to see how many fouls Whiteside gets with the slashing ability of the Cavs. Top projections on the night are DeMarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
About the Author:
NBA/PGA/MLB Content Provider
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.