? NBA Who’s Hot? – January 17th ?
Welcome back, I hope everyone had a great Martin Luther King holiday. We had a jam packed slate of NBA Games yesterday, starting at 1:00pm all the way up until 10:30pm last night. Some of them, Cavs @ Warrios and Thunder @ Clippers didn’t really live up to the hype however and we lost a lot of Fantasy Goodness in those games yesterday. Hopefully, today we can dig into this small 5 game slate and find “the plays” to help us all turn a profit.
As always I’m going to use our NBA Cheat Sheets to help me identify players who have been on recent hot streaks. I’ll determine this “Hot Streak” by using our “Who’s Hot” metric on the sheets (column “AE”) The Who’s Hot metric shows us the difference in fantasy points per game scored by a player over his Last 3 games, vs his Last 10 games. I will be referencing Fanduel Scoring in the article, but, some of these players could still be viable on Draftkings.
I will do my best to try and explain WHY for you with a few of the players I will highlight below, but, the rest is going to be up to you.
In the above graphic, I’ve included the “Minutes Watch” section of the sheets, to help you get a better understanding of “WHY” some of these players are (HOT) and scoring more fantasy points recently. As most of you know, in NBA DFS, Minutes = Money and generally speaking, if a player has been receiving more minutes than usual, he will likely score more fantasy points than usual.
*NOTE* The graphic above, is sorted by the Hot Column, highest to lowest.
(C) Jonas Valanciunas $6,000
The top player on the list today is the Center from the Toronto Raptors, Jonas Valanciunas. He’s checking all the boxes today, as he finds himself in the same matchup he dominated in just the other day vs the Brooklyn Nets. Big Val has a (+11.07) HOT rating coming into tonight’s game. He’s averaging 36.27 over his last 3 and he’s not showing any signs of slowing down. His price has gone up about $900 in the past 5 Days so this may be our last chance to get him at a discount. He’s playing solid minutes, usually around 28 to 30 minutes per game so I feel like he’s very safe in this spot tonight. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup as the Nets rank last or near last in almost every defensive statistic this season. Lock and Load Big Val in your cash games tonight
(PF) Dirk Nowitzki $5,700
The future hall of famer Dirk Nowitzki is started the season dealing with some injuries. When returned to the lineup he came back slowly under a minutes restriction. Now, he’s finally getting a full compliment of minutes and his fantasy production is on the rise. He’s been averaging 32.97 fantasy points per game over his last 3, which is (+9.52) higher than his previous 10 game average. Dirk is one of the all time great scorers in the NBA and his price is too cheap right now for the production he’s putting out. I don’t expect it to stay this low for very long so, grab him now while he’s a good value and ride this hot streak.
(PF) Nikola Jokic $8,500
We’ve all been saying this guys price is just simply too low for his talent level. He’s a true (+)Point Per Minute player but his problem has always been court time. His Head Coach not giving him the minutes and him getting himself into foul trouble have been the only things holding him back in the past. If you check out the image below, you can quickly see that’s no longer an issue.
He seems to be locked into about 27 to 30+ minutes nowadays and his production has been spectacular. He’s averaging 46.30 over his last 3 games, up from his already very good 38.95 from his last 10 game average. His price has quickly gone up to match his on court production, now up +$800 over the past 5 days. He’s no longer a discount he used to be, and we’re going to have to pay for this level of production. If he just simply stay out of foul trouble, I don’t think its too crazy to expect 35+ fantasy points every night from him. Tonight’s matchup couldn’t get any better (unless it was vs the Nets) as he gets the LA Lakers. His ownership is going to be through the roof as most people have a very short term memory in regards to DFS and he just dropped 54.7 yesterday vs Orlando.
(SF) Kawi Leonard $8,800
Depending on who you talk to, Kawi Leonard is the best two way player in the NBA. If he’s not the best, he’s Top 5 easily right now in the league. He can shut down the other teams #1 Option and fill it up for himself on the other end of the court. The Spurs are a team that just keeps winning without any of the Glitz and Glam of the other great teams in the NBA and Kawi is the main Cog in this lineup. Over the past 3 games he is scoring (+5.65) from his ten game average of 40.72. He’s got a solid matchup tonight vs the young Minnesota Timberwolves and Andrew Wiggins. I don’t expect Kawi to have too much trouble with the matchup. On the other hand, I would stay far far away from Wiggins in your DFS Lineups tonight as “Kawi Island” is not a place we look forward to visiting.
(PG) Deron Williams $6,400
Deron put on a show the other night vs the Suns, dropping 23 points along with 12 assists, good enough for 42.4 fanduel points. He’s been really clicking Offensively since the resurgence of Dirk Nowitzki and over his last 3 games he’s averaging 32.70 which is (+5.49) from his ten game average. He gets a pretty solid matchup tonight vs the Chicago Bulls and Michael Carter Williams. The matchup vs the Bulls who are known for their tough Defense may scare some people away. However, they have actually been pretty bad vs Point Guards since Carter Williams was inserted into the starting lineup so I think Deron will do just fine tonight.
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About the Author:
CeeGee has been an avid Season long fantasy player since the days of steno notebooks and weekly calls to the league commissioner to make lineup adjustments.
Currently a Top 1% NBA Grinder (according to RotoGrinders.com rankings) and top 3% Overall. He has been grinding Daily Fantasy Sports since 2013. While a cash game player at heart, there have been Several Top 1% Tournament finishes in CFB (rip), MLB, NBA and NFL since 2013.