? NBA Who’s Hot? – January 18th ?
Hey everyone, welcome to the Wednesday edition of our “Who’s Hot” article. I hope you all had some success last night, and I hope you had some exposure to that late night hammer game between Denver and the Lakers. I know everyone was thrown for a bit of a loop 15 minutes before lock when Kyle Lowry was scratched. His replacement Cory Joseph did pretty well however, hitting around 12x value on both Fanduel and Draftkings. This is a good example of why its important to follow news and be available close to lock to edit your lineups when news occurs. I was in a few tournaments last night where Kyle Lowry was still in the 15% to 20% ownership range, which created a massive edge for those of us who were able to to swap in Joseph and upgrade everywhere else.
Today is Wednesday so we’ve got a nice 9 game slate to attack on Fanduel and Draftkings. As always I’m going to use our NBA Cheat Sheets to help me identify players who have been on recent hot streaks. I’ll determine this “Hot Streak” by using our “Who’s Hot” metric on the sheets (column “AE”) The Who’s Hot metric shows us the difference in fantasy points per game scored by a player over his Last 3 games, vs his Last 10 games. I will be referencing Fanduel Scoring in the article, but, some of these players could still be viable on Draftkings.
I will do my best to try and explain WHY for you with a few of the players I will highlight below, but, the rest is going to be up to you.
In the above graphic, I’ve included the “Minutes Watch” section of the sheets, to help you get a better understanding of “WHY” some of these players are (HOT) and scoring more fantasy points recently. As most of you know, in NBA DFS, Minutes = Money and generally speaking, if a player has been receiving more minutes than usual, he will likely score more fantasy points than usual.
*NOTE* The graphic above, is sorted by the Hot Column, highest to lowest.
(PG) Elfrid Payton $6,200
10 Game Average (28.80) — 3 Game Average (43.47)
+(14.67) over his last 3
Payton is one of the players that is always hard to count on but he’s definitely a player that has been putting up great scores recently. With a massive 57.3 fantasy point game a few games vs the Utah Jazz of all teams, Payton finds himself at the top of our Who’s Hot Chart tonight. Currently averaging 14.67 more fantasy points per game over his last 3 games compared to his last 10 games. He gets a matchup tonight vs the New Orleans Pelicans and Jrue Holiday who isn’t quite known for his Defensive prowess. With Orlando SG Evan Founier (don’t google Founier) being out Payton has really stepped up his production. Look for this to continue tonight it what should be a high scoring uptempo game.
(PF) Terrance Jones $5,300
10 Game Average (21.36) — 3 Game Average (33.20)
+(11.84) over his last 3
I was really hoping Anthony Davis would be ruled out tonight, so I could go all in on Terrance Jones. News recently broke however that Davis will play this evening. That being said, I don’t think Terrance Jones is necessarily off the table tonight, as he’s been putting up solid numbers recently even with Davis on the court. Over his last 3 games, he’s averaging 33.20 fantasy points per game which is +11.84 from his 10 game average of 21.36. Even if Davis plays tonight, I like Terrance Jones at Home against the Orlando Magic. His minutes have been consistent, right around 25 to 30 for the last few games so I think its safe to assume he’ll get that again tonight. Jones is in a really good spot tonight, against a team like Orlando who isn’t very interested in playing Defense. You get an possible added Bonus when you roster Terrance Jones. There is always that possibility of Anthony Davis getting injured early in the game which would lead to an extreme bump in production from Jones at lower ownership than you would see compared to when Davis is ruled out pre lock.
(C) Kelly Olynyk $4,300
10 Game Average (21.79) — 3 Game Average (31.53)
+(9.74) over his last 3
This guy has been putting up numbers like he’s back at Gonzaga recently. With 42.1 and 32.8 in his last 2 games he seems to have found his shot recently. Tonight he gets a matchup with the Knicks who are just god awful vs Opposing Big Men. Joakim Noah has already been ruled out tonight, so, Olynyk will get to square off against Kyle O’Quinn and Guillermo Hernangomez (GHG as I like to call him). Neither of these guys is going to want to step out onto the perimeter and try and cover Olynyk. Over his last 3 games he’s averaging +9.74 more fantasy points per game compared to his previous 10 games. With a price of $4,300 on Fanduel, he will be a nice salary saver to fit guys like Westbrook, Harden, Gianis, and Durant into your lineups.
(PG) Cory Joseph $3,900
10 Game Average (21.00) — 3 Game Average (30.63)
+(9.63) over his last 3
Kyle Lowry was a late scratch, about 15 minutes before lock last night. That made Cory Joseph the most popular value play of the evening vs the Brooklyn Nets. If you didn’t have a chance to get him into your lineup last night, you probably had a tough time cashing. 50/50 cash lines on Fanduel were in the 315+ range last night. Largely in part to Joseph’s 42.8 fantasy point explosion. He returned (x)10.97 his value last night and while I can’t predict anything like that tonight, I still feel like his price is too low vs a 76’ers that is one of the worst teams in the league. Joseph’s 3 game average of 30.63 is influenced by yesterday’s huge game, however, he also had a big game, 2 games ago vs the same Nets team, where he scored 34.3 fantasy points in just 22 minutes on the court. There are rumblings that DeMar Derozan may sit out tonight, after logging tons of minutes last night in the absence of Lowry so Joseph could see an uptick in his normal minutes. He wont get anywhere near his 37 minutes from last night, but if he gets around 25 he should return good value on his current salary.
(SG) Tyreke Evans $5,600
10 Game Average (21.65) — 3 Game Average (32.50)
+(10.85) over his last 3
Just like Terrance Jones above, I was ready to be 100% ALL IN tonight on Tyreke Evans if news came out that Anthony Davis would miss tonight’s game. As you know, Davis is playing tonight so I’m going to have less Tyreke than I orginally planned. He’s been performing really well lately, averaging 32.50 fantasy points per game over his last 3 which is +10.85 above his 10 game average of 21.65. His minutes have been on the steady incline as he works himself back from an injury that kept him out for the first few months of the season. We all know the type of player Evans is, and he showed us his upside just the other day vs the Brooklyn Nets (notice a theme here?) when he went off for 46.3 fantasy points in 28 minutes. It should be noted that, Anthony Davis missed that game so there was a ton of usage that needed to be dispersed among the rest of the Pelicans players. That game, Evans was the clear beneficiary of Davis’ absence. Over the next 2 games, with Davis in the lineup, Evans put up 25.2 and 26 fanduel points in 22 and 23 minutes. We know he’s right around a Fantasy Point Per Minute player in his career, so as long as he’s getting close to 25 minutes he’ll be in play.
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About the Author:
CeeGee has been an avid Season long fantasy player since the days of steno notebooks and weekly calls to the league commissioner to make lineup adjustments.
Currently a Top 1% NBA Grinder (according to RotoGrinders.com rankings) and top 3% Overall. He has been grinding Daily Fantasy Sports since 2013. While a cash game player at heart, there have been Several Top 1% Tournament finishes in CFB (rip), MLB, NBA and NFL since 2013.