Indianapolis Colts 2016 Preview

Indianapolis Colts 2016 Preview

2015 Season Preview (8-8)

2015 Pass Attempts 619 – Rank: 9th
2015 Rush Attempts 396 – Rank: 21st
2015 Total Offensive 1,052 – Plays Rank: 12th
2015 Yards Per Play 4.9 – Rank: 32nd

The Colts had a disappointing year in 2015. Their franchise quarterback, Andrew Luck, was battling injuries nearly from day 1 of the Season. He battled his way through some shoulder injuries through first half of the Season. In Week 9 Luck was set down for good, because of a lacerated kidney. Even with all his injury troubles last year, Andrew Luck had a 16 game pace of 4,299 yards and 34 touchdowns. I’m looking for a big bounce back year from Luck, barring any more injuries.
Andrew Luck is the obvious DFS play of this offense, and people may stack him with TY Hilton. It may be wise move to fade Luck early in the season to see what he is capable of this year. The schedule sets up nicely for the Colts and obviously they play indoors so they aren’t going to have to worry about weather late in the year. The WR core is full of speedsters, TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett can flat out fly. There should be plenty of fantasy goodness in Colts games this year.

Ty Hilton was targeted over 125 times last year, despite Luck being injured for half the Season. It’s pretty obvious he’s the #1 WR of the Bunch. If I were going to play TY Hilton, with our without Luck on my DFS teams, I would clearly target him when the Colts are Playing at Home, or, on the road in another Dome Stadium. Hilton averages around 80 yards per game in dome stadiums, and only 55 yards per game in outdoor stadiums.

Donte Moncrief is entering his 3rd NFL Season, and this is usually the year young WR’s like to break out. All of the stats are in his favor which would suggest a breakout is coming. Last year, with Luck under center he was targeted nearly as much as Hilton. If you did even deeper, you’ll find that Moncrief has better “advanced” stats than Hilton in several categories (catch rate, drop rate and TD / target%). I’ll be looking for value in Moncrief this year for sure. Dwayne Allen could prove to be an interesting and cheap play at TE early in the year, as Colby Fleener moved to New Orleans.

This is a big year for Andrew Luck and the Colts. They have the best QB in the Division, they have the best Head Coach in the Division. Watch out for the Jags though. Vegas has the Colts set at 8.5 heading into 2016. I’m taking the over on this one, as I simply don’t see the Titans, Texans being on their level. The Jags are close, but still unproven. I’m taking the Over but I’m not sure they’ll be able to win the Division this year. A lack of a running game may hurt them down the stretch in some games.

Indianapolis Colts
  1 2 3 4 5 6
QB Andrew Luck Scott Tolzien Stephen Morris      
RB Frank Gore Josh Ferguson Robert Turbin Jordan Todman Trey Williams Tyler Varga
WR T.Y. Hilton Donte Moncrief Phillip Dorsett Josh Boyce Quan Bray  
TE Dwayne Allen Jack Doyle Erik Swoope Chase Coffman    
K Adam Vinatieri      

The Core by xBenJamminx

The Colts haven’t been particularly dominant on either side of the ball, but they are coming back with some weapons.

One of the biggest busts of the season last year was Andrew Luck. The thing is, Luck had the third most passing attempts per game last year, but he only had a 55% Completion%. The Colts have a pretty tough schedule this year at almost every position. I understand Luck was playing injured for the majority of his starts in 2015 so take the numbers with a grain of salt but he did average 18 FPPG when he was playing, although the 15/12 TD/INT wasn’t promising. T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief receiver the majority of the targets in this offense last year and the majority of those targets happened to be in the first half of the season where they played with Andrew Luck. T.Y. Hilton is obviously the Colts go to player, and happens to be their deep ball threat averaging 16 yards per play last year. He has to work on the cleanness of his routes, but his speed is undeniable. The only thing I’m worried about is opposing defenses being able to double team him or play over under and be able to lock him down. Fortunately he has another playmaker in Donte Moncrief on the other side of the field to help take some pressure off. Colts reporter Mike Wells said “”it won’t be surprising” if Donte Moncrief leads the team in receptions. Frank Gore almost reached 1,000 yards last season and was their clear cut bell cow RB, handling 65% of the Colts rush attempts last year. He only averaged 3.7 yards per attempt but we know he’s going to get the opportunities, while also getting around 3-4 passing targets per game. With Coby Fleener moving on to the Saints, the TE spot is Dwayne Allen’s for the taking. He’s been injured every year since being drafted but if he can stay healthy, he’ll be a big part of this offense. They have Phillip Dorsett as the WR3 and is a player that can come alive in this offense, especially since it seems they are committed to running 3-WR formations, though he won’t get too many targets per game since there’s a lot of mouths to feed.

Cash Thoughts: The schedule is tough but they’re a team that loves offense and will be throwing the ball all around the field. I can see value in possibly using Andrew Luck by himself, because he can have a good day but it may be tough to predict who will be on the receiving end. In the right matchup I would have no problem with a QB/WR1 stack with T.Y. Hilton but I see him as a pretty boom/bust player. I don’t see using anyone else much unless the price and matchup were right for Donte Moncrief or Frank Gore. I could actually picture using the QB/TE stack with Dwayne Allen if I thought more of the defensive focus would be on the WRs for that week.

GPP Thoughts: This is certainly an offense I could go stack crazy with. I wouldn’t be as on the QB/RB stack that I would be on with other teams, because of lack of passing to the RB and Luck being a downfield passer, I’d be more likely to be on QB/WR1/WR2, QB/WR1/TE, QB/WR2/TE or if you want to go all in, QB/WR1/WR2/TE, preferably with PPR scoring. You could always substitute Phillip Dorsett for Donte Moncrief but I wouldn’t recommend playing them together.

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