Kansas City Chiefs 2016 Preview

Kansas City Chiefs 2016 Preview

2015 Season Review (11-5)

2015 Pass Attempts Rank: 29th (473)
2015 Rush Attempts Rank: 12th (436)
2015 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 31st (955)
2015 Yards Per Play Rank: 12th (5.5)

Overall, from a DFS perspective, the Chiefs are a tough Offensive team to break down. For that reason I usually find myself avoiding them. Alex Smith’s upside is limited, but he’s extremely steady and consistent. He will also pick up fantasy points with his legs as he rushed for 498 yards last year. Smith’s favorite target last year was Jeremy Maclin, who racked up the 2nd most targets of his career in 2015. He was a steal for people in Season long leagues and he became a safe option weekly in DFS as the season wore on.

Travis Kelce, baby Gronk as some people call him, turned in a solid year last year. He signed a $46m contract extension in the Off Season and he should be a focal point of the Chiefs Offense this Season. For some odd reason, over the past 2 years he’s only seen double digit targets in one game over that span. In my opinion, the Chiefs need to feed this beast and utilize this clear matchup they have over their opponents weekly.

A major question mark for the Chiefs, and anyone with an upcoming Season long draft, will be the health of HB Jamaal Charles. Before his injury early in the season he was on pace for 1,700 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s had 2 major knee injuries over the last 5 years, but, other than those injuries, he’s been very durable. He has a career average of 5.47 yards per carry, which ranks 2nd in NFL History. I would wait and see how healthy he is before plugging him right away. The Chiefs could decide to reduce his workload a little early on in the Season, and I believe he will be somewhat highly owned early on. I believe the safe play is to fade him and look for a more expensive option elsewhere early in the season.

The Chiefs early line is set at 9 games. They’ve been consistent over the past few years finishing 11-5, 9-7 and 11-5. I feel like their schedule is rather easy (on paper) and with Denver taking a step back, I’m picking the Chiefs to go over 9 wins and compete for the AFC West Division crown.

Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9    
QB Alex Smith Nick Foles Aaron Murray Kevin Hogan Tyler Bray            
RB Jamaal Charles Spencer Ware Charcandrick West Knile Davis Darrin Reaves Anthony Sherman          
WR Jeremy Maclin Chris Conley Albert Wilson DeAnthony Thomas Rod Streater Demarcus Robinson Tyreek Hill Frankie Hammond Mike Williams    
TE Travis Kelce James O’Shaughnessy Demetrius Harris Brian Parker Ross Travis            
K Cairo Santos      

The Core by xBenJamminx

What we know about the Chiefs is they love to dink and dunk the ball, and make that their primary offensive strategy. They have one of the harder schedules over the course of the season for all offensive positions except tight end.

They like to throw hooks and screens to get the ball in their play-maker’s hands. Alex Smith was ranked 19th in Completions (307) & Pass Attempts (470) and 20th in Passing Yards (3,486) & Touchdowns (20).  Those aren’t jump off the page numbers and is evident based on his league ranks. Jeremy Maclin is a good player but didn’t rank in the top 10 in Receptions, Yards or TDs last year, although he had a respectable line of 87/1,088/8. Most of his yards come AT the catch and not after, meaning that he has a hard time separating once the ball is in his hands. You want to play him primarily against bigger defenders who aren’t as quick. Jamaal Charles is one of the most elusive running backs in the NFL but has had some injury problems. The thing is, he’s their guy and will surely command respect from the defense, which should open up big for “Baby Gronk” Travis Kelce who has the easiest schedule for a TE in the NFL this year. Kelce (103) was second in targets for KC last year behind Maclin (124). Although he had 72 Recs, tying Rob Gronkowski, he didn’t reach 1,000 yards and was the #9 TE in terms of TDs scored. He should get more opportunities this year with some TD progression. I think the combo of sure handed quick Albert Wilson running the inside slot position and big body addition with 4.3 speed Chris Conley manning the X opposite Maclin, will be a nice receiving core for Smith.

Cash Thoughts: I’m going to be taking a wait and see approach with this offense for cash games. I can consider Travis Kelce as a TE option for cash, assuming his price isn’t too high. Alex Smith isn’t someone I choose to roster and if I’m using any of the WRs it would be for a PPR approach, not expecting heavy TD action. Jamaal Charles may be someone we can use as an option but I want to wait and see how he looks coming off injury.

GPP Thoughts: I have a hard time trusting this offense, after running the second least amount of plays in the NFL last year and the 6th least yards per game. I think for me, I would leave out Alex Smith and choose Travis Kelce and one of the wide receivers, based on the matchup of the week. I think a TE/WR1(2/3) is a good PPR stack with potential touchdowns, but it’s hard for me to want to use Smith, with his general lack of upside. Jamaal Charles at full strength is always a GPP option for his upside of pass catching. They love throwing him screens, and he’s one of the most versatile running backs in the league.

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