Finding Value NFL 12/11
by Chris Hollander @
**Please Read – I have changed all my writing to Fan Duel information because it seems that more people play on Fan Duel than Draft Kings. The Link to the spreadsheet has both Fan Duel and Draft Kings in separate tabs, but the writing is based on Fan Duel.**
Target DvP: TEN, MIA, WAS, GBP, DAL, PHI
Stay Away DvP: DET, JAC, ATL, PIT, SEA, NYG, CLE
Trevor Siemian (Questionable) is in the best position for the weekend. He is a game-time decision at the moment, but is one of the most undervalued players on Draft Kings for the weekend. He has thrown for 2 or more touchdowns and 250+ yards in his last three starts. If he ends up being able to play, he would be a great value pick for the weekend against a sub-par pass defense in the Titans. Kirk Cousins is high up on the charts against the Eagles. On the year, the Eagles are average at defending opposing quarterbacks; however, over the last four weeks they have struggled to stop opposing QBs. Cousins has been solid over the past four weeks and has not logged a game worse than 18 Draft Kings points since week 5 against the Ravens. He is a strong case for both Cash and GPP. Last, Carson Palmer is in a nice spot against the Dolphins this weekend. After struggling early in the season, it seems like Palmer has found a bit of rhythm over the past few weeks. His salary continues to decrease and this may be the week to cash in on this downward trend. In addition, I like this game because it will be one of the few games played in decent temperatures. Top projections are Trevor Siemian, Andrew Luck, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson.
Target DvP: ATL, LAR, SFO, DET
Stay Away DvP: ARI, TBB, NOS, SEA, KCC, DEN
Devonta Freeman has moved to the top of my charts against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have had an average defense against the run for the entire year, but over the last 4 weeks they have been absolutely torched by running backs. Freeman has a strong last two weeks and the Falcons are continuing to fight for the lead in the AFC South in a must win matchup. David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell come with huge price tags, but have the projections to back up those tags. David Johnson has been unbelievable over the past few games and the Cardinals are faced with another must win game where they must have him preform well to win. Le’Veon Bell has a slightly better matchup against the Bills and the Steelers are fighting for the playoffs in a must win game (Deja vu?). If you are trying to fade either or both of those players (I do not recommend this unless you are a super contrarian) then Todd Gurley could be in store for a breakout game against the worst rush defense in the league over the last 4 games and over the season. The Rams have been pretty terrible offensively, which means Gurley would only be worth a GPP flier. Top projections on the weekend are David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, and Ezekiel Elliott.
Target DvP: TEN, DAL, PHI, SFO
Stay Away DvP: JAC, ATL, TBB, CHI, NYG, DET
The WR writing may be a little bit more than the others considering there are a lot more options. Taylor Gabriel comes up as the best value pick on the week against the Rams. Over the last 4 games, he has made the most of his limited targets. To ensure that Gabriel will get an opportunity to catch some passes, you need to check the status of Sanu as the weekend progresses. If Sanu is ruled out, Gabriel could be a strong pick in both GPP and Cash games at $4,300. Pierre Garcon moves up the charts after a solid last four weeks. The Eagles are one of the best teams at guarding the #1 WR and the TE, which opens up opportunity for other avenues in the Redskin offense. In fact on week 6 against the Eagles, Garcon had 11 targets, which is the most he has had on the year. The status of Siemian will need to be monitored for these value picks, but Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are in at solid prices against the Titans. The Titans have been fairly decent at guarding the 1 receiver, but are one of the worst at guarding the 2. They seem to struggle at short routes which could really favor the pair. My last pick, which really hinges on the health of Matthews and Green–Beckham, is Paul Turner of the Eagles. Last week we saw Turner targeted 8 times and had 6 catches for 80 yards. If one or both of those receivers are out he could see a similar work load this weekend and he could be the key to a winning GPP lineup. Top projections on the weekend are Odell Beckham, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, and Tyrell Williams.
Target DvP: MIA, GBP, DAL, CIN, WAS, NYG
Stay Away DvP: CLE, DEN, WAS, MIA, HOU
Over the past two weeks we have seen a target increase for Jermaine Gresham, who is in the best DvP position of the week. Gresham could be a nice compliment if you are planning to take Carson Palmer. At the league minimum, he would be a fantastic pickup if he can grab one or two touchdowns over the weekend. If you are into giving old guys a chance then Antonio Gates is in a solid position against the Panthers. He has not been stellar over the past two games, but he is worth a look in a GPP situation if you are trying to go away from the crowd. Zach Ertz has seen his price rapidly increase over the past few weeks; however, he is still a solid value pick for a tight end given his performances. Washington is one of the worst teams in the league at defending the position and he could be in store for some heavy action. Top projections on the weekend are Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, Zach Ertz, and Delanie Walker.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are in a great spot against a stagnant Vikings team. This game features the lowest Vegas over/under and given the pricing of the Jags it is much easier to take them than the Vikings. The Seattle Seahawks are my second value pick for defenses. The harder the spot the Seahawks are in the better they seem to play. The highest projections on the weekend are the Lions, Vikings, Bengals, and Broncos.
Thanks a lot for reading! If you have any questions feel free to contact me on twitter.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
About the Author:
NBA/PGA/MLB Content Provider
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.