Week 1 is finally almost here! Let’s take a look at some GPP plays that could get it done this week. I primarily play on Draft Kings so my recommendations are targeted for that site although many of the plays would certainly be usable on other sites as well. Also, I am always looking for a contrarian angle and for ways to avoid the massive ownership of The Herd so most of my plays should be looked at as risky GPP plays. You already know who the chalky, most likely to succeed plays are every week but here we are looking to exploit DFS from the game theory perspective and take the road less traveled.
My personal favorite play this week at QB this week is Blake Bortles. The guy is almost always under owned and almost always playing catchup. As a 4.5 point home dog this week in a game with one of the highest totals on the board, and emerging weapons at his disposal, I like Bortles to hand a solid, if not huge number, this week as the Jags try to keep pace with the Packers.
Probably a little more chalky than Bortles but still likely to be relatively low owned and sitting at 6600 on DK is Jameis Winston, who will also likely be playing catchup this week on the road versus the Falcons. I expect this game will be a little more in the spotlight than the Packers-Jaguars but with more experience under his belt, I sense this is the time to buy low on Winston before the price rises. The Falcons secondary really doesn’t scare me. We could also get a cheap passing TD or two on a dump off to one of the talented pass catching backs. And Winston is always a threat with his wheels.
Theo Riddick easily lands atop my list for low-own running backs with upside. Detroit is a road dog in a game against a suspect defense with a high total. Megatron is gone. There are rumblings that Abdullah may be used more, but right now there’s a lot of uncertainty as to where the Lions passing production goes. Riddick could flop and see only a couple of targets. But at the same time he is a PPR dream and his upside for the price is undeniable as he logged 3 games with double digit receptions last year, and I expect he will end up being heavily targeted in this one.
Charles Sims is in a very similar role to Theo at a similar price. I expect he will also see heavy targets as the Bucs spend the day in catchup mode. I will likely be pairing him with Winston in the less conventional QB/RB pairing for GPPs and hope they can hook up for a score. Sims counterpart Doug Martin is also in play of course but I prefer to take the cheaper price with Sims and spend up elsewhere for someone like Julio Jones who I won’t write up under wide receivers but you already know all about Julio.
Sammy Watkins is $6900 on DK. I don’t really know what else to say here. The Baltimore defensive jersey may scare some people away but hey all the better for us. Watkins possesses that rare upside for huge games that few receivers in the league do and I’ll be heavily invested. He’s probably a bit more chalky than most I recommend, but I just can’t pass up on this price here. Pretty close to Julio upside at a midrange price has GPP winning formula written all over it.
Honestly, there are a ton of wide receivers to like every week in the NFL and I could name off several but my second spot goes to Tyler Lockett. I’m not too excited about his $5000 price tag on DK, which is I believe the highest we’ve ever seen, but man is the upside still there. Lockett should see a bigger role in the offense this year and he’s going up against a more than suspect Dolphins secondary this week. His teammate Doug Baldwin always garners higher ownership levels. And, oh yeah, Lockett is a huge threat in the return game. I’ll have heavy shares this week and will even look to pair him with the Seattle defense and hope lightning strikes for the double touchdown credit.
Jason Witten to me is possibly the best value on the board at any position. No he doesn’t possess the upside of the elite WRs and RBs or even the elite TEs but he’s a strong play this week with a rookie QB at the helm and he actually had a huge week 1 game last year vs. the Giants. Prescott is certainly no Tony Romo..Dallas fans take that comment as you will..but rookie QBs often end up leaning heavily on TEs as they adjust to the speed of the game and Witten is one of the best in the business. He’ll likely find his way in to my cash lineup and into many of my GPPs.
I’ll be the first to admit, like many other DFS players, I hate picking defenses. I’ll likely have shares of Seattle when I pair them with Lockett. I do like the Texans quite a bit as well. Normally what I do though is try to gauge who the chalk will be and find a defense I like who will be a little less owned as we get a little closer to kickoff.
That’s it for Week 1 guys. These obviously aren’t the only guys I’ll be playing but I’ll be using these guys alongside some of the more chalky plays this week in hopes of avoiding The Herd and taking down that big GPP. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @ with any questions. Sometimes I’m slow to respond if I’m at work but I try to get to everyone.
About the Author:
Sylbester is a poker player turned DFS junkie who specializes in NBA, CFB (if it ever comes back), and NFL cash games and large field GPPs. He is ranked as a Top 10 Flyweight grinder on Rotogrinders.com. In a little over 2 years he has accumulated dozens of top 10 large field GPP finishes including a 2nd place finish in a 975,000 plus entry DK Millionaire Maker contest in 2015 where he won $100,000 and missed the million dollar prize by a single yard. Sylbester specializes in using Game Theory to his advantage in DFS and enjoys teaching new players the basics of game strategy. He has been married for 19 years and has two teenage girls. He happily answers questions via twitter under @bullfroggreen or @DFSFrog.