If you are downloading the spreadsheet (which is currently free) it has a lot of information for you. You can choose what stats are best for your own model. Click the “Build Your Own Model” and then you can do your own research and make decisions on who the statistics say will be the best golfer for the tournament. The goal is to make the Total in Green be 100 by changing all of the numbers in yellow to equal 100. The higher the number you put, the more weighting it will have on the tournament.
Dustin Johnson is going to be at the top of the list for pretty much every tournament because of his unbelievable play over the past couple of years. Dustin has been incredible and has seen success at this course. In 2016, he finished with an average of 67 over his four rounds (remember this course is playing at a par 70, which means guys that play Par 4’s better should have a little more weight because Par 5’s won’t come in to play as much).
Jordan Spieth has played this course every year since 2013 and has done a solid job over the past two years. Jordan had a difficult time at the Players last week, but I like him to make a solid comeback and show that he is one of the best in the world. I don’t think he will win the tournament, but I like him finishing strong.
Sergio Garcia has to get some looks because of his play last year, winning the tournament. His game in 2017 sets up well for another strong finish, but I think his ownership will be quite high. It would be hard for me to consider him in a GPP scenario, but he should be a strong pick for your top money cash pick.
Mid-Range $7,500 – $9,500
Tony Finau looks to be a great pick here and with his last two years at this tournament, he could be a real contender to win the tournament. Finau didn’t have the best time at the Players, but always has a chance to go low with his ability to drive the ball deep and get himself in short iron situations. If he can get the putter hot, he could be in for a solid week.
Russell Henley is coming off a decent showing at the Players and could easily be considered in either format. Henley had a rough 2016 here, but his 2015 showed that he has the ability to contend in the top 20 at a solid price point. He has the capability of winning tournaments and just needs his iron play to be crisp to score low.
Brandt Snedeker is one of those guys that is always in the mix because of a low round each weekend. Sneds has been up and down at this tournament, but has showed the capability of going low here by his 2015 performance. Snedeker hasn’t played since the RBC Heritage where he had a solid showing and should be refreshed and ready to play solid golf all week.
John Huh has played at the Byron in the last four years and has been up and down. He had a couple solid showing in 2013 and 2014, but his 2015 and 2016 tournaments were not solid. However, his statistics show that he could really do some damage here if he sticks to his game and gets to the weekend. This is a GPP play only.
Chad Campbell had a great 2016 averaging a 67.25 over his four rounds. This turn around came after three years of averaging over 70, which worried me a little bit in considering him for cash games. However, he looks to be a solid GPP pick with his ability to go low here for a great price.
Zac Blair has played this tournament over the past two years and did fairly well both times. He had been playing some decent golf until the players, where he averaged a 78 and failed to make the cut. However, I have seen guys bounce back from rough weekends and get back to basics with a low first round. I would consider Blair only in a GPP format and stick with more consistent players in cash.
Below I have included a list of the guys that have the highest numbers of birdies per round in their PGA tournaments so far, this year.
Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Chris Stroud, Scott Piercy, Brooks Koepka, Anirban Lahiri, Brandt Snedeker, Cody Gribble, Greg Owen, Tony Finau, Russell Henley, and JB Holmes.
About the Author:
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.