If you are downloading the spreadsheet (which is currently free) it has a lot of information that you can choose what stats are best for your own model. Click the “Build Your Own Model” and then you can do your own research and make decisions on who the statistics say will be the best golfer for the tournament. The goal is to make the Total in Green be 100 by changing all of the numbers in yellow to equal 100. The higher the number you put, the more weighting it will have on the tournament.
Jordan Spieth comes up as the top play for our model this week. Since driving distance is not a huge deal, I thin he should set up well for a strong finish. Spieth has been poor over the past two tournaments, but has been one of the best players at this tournament year in and year out. His lowest finish in the past four years has been 14th.
Jon Rahm will be making his first appearance at this tournament in his short career. Rahm had his struggles at the players, but had been playing the best golf of any players on the tour over the few months before that poor finish. Rahm has a bit of edge on Spieth from the tee, but Jordan is one of the best players from 150+ on tour which gives him the slight edge on Rahm at most courses.
Sergio Garcia has been playing some solid golf over the last couple months and sets up reasonably well for this tournament. If you are looking for a slight price break from the top two players, Sergio is a decent pivot along with Paul Casey and Kevin Kisner.
Mid-Range $7,500 – $9,500
Tony Finau has had some solid finishes at the Dean and Deluca over the past few years and is at a pretty decent price to consider in either cash or GPPs. I think he will be a little higher owned for GPPs, but he is definitely worth a look because I don’t think it will be astronomical. Finau has the ability to go extremely low, but with that he does have a chance to shoot poorly.
Adam Hadwin has been having a nice campaign this year and his game sets up well here at the D&D. Last year, Hadwin seemed to figure out this course pretty early which makes me comfortable with him in either format. I think he is worth a look in either format because people have stopped talking about him after the incredible month he had a few months ago.
Pat Perez could be one of the better sleepers of this tournament at 7,600 or you could see some high ownership. Perez is one of the best birdie makers on the tour and has had success at this tournament in the past. As for his last couple of rounds, he had a couple of great finishes and it seems his game is in form.
Chez Reavie comes up as our top value play for this tournament; however, there are a few red flags that make me a bit wary of taking a lot of stock in him. Last year, he was cut at this tournament, but did have a solid finish in 2013 and last week he was right on the cut line at the Byron Nelson. I think he is worth a look in GPPs, but you cannot trust him in cash games.
Luke List is a guy that all of the models have really liked, but has underperformed all season. This tournament shows him as another solid pick, but he has been cut in two of his last three tournament. I think he is a fantastic pick for a GPP because of his hit or miss type of game, but you cannot consider him in cash games.
Anirban Lahiri is always a guy that I don’t mind targeting, especially if you are playing Fan Duel. He nets a ton of birdies and is a hit or miss guy that is perfect for GPPs. Lahiri had a great finish in 2016 at the D&D, but has been cut in his last two tournaments. I know it seems like I am red flagging a lot of the guys under 7,500, but we are trying to target guys that could potentially win you a GPP. All of these guys are solid options considering their games are hit or miss and have the potential for a big finish.
Below I have included a list of the guys that have the highest numbers of birdies per round in their PGA tournaments so far, this year.
Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Scott Piercy, Camilo Villegas, Luke List, Phil Mickelson, Pat Perez, Chris Stroud, Anirban Lahiri, Chris Kirk, and Tony Finau.
About the Author:
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.