May 19th Quick Pitching Notes
These are my not-very-in-depth, off-the-cuff reactions to tonight’s slate—no time for the full analysis, but hope these help someone!
Strasburg: Strasburg at home against a Mets team that can be had for Ks. Though there’s a chance he is no good today, I think he’s a solid cash play, even at his price. Favored in lowest Vegas score of the night.
Sale: Should be top cash option as HOU Ks a ton. Price and the fact that Sale’s Ks are down considerably make this a viable fade for GPPs, but he’s a rock solid cash game play.
Estrada: Intriguing option. Twins tougher at home, but they have been pretty toothless with a high K rate. Estrada in a better spot out of TOR. Under-the-radar pick for cash or GPP.
Samardzija: Pitching very effectively and facing a weak SDP team in Petco. Like him a lot for cash. Like him ok for GPPs.
Gray: K rate through the roof, but facing a STL that’s tough to K and hits very well. Plenty of GPP upside, but too much risk for cash. Decent price for what he might get you.
Santana: If his walks are under control, he could have a nice night. If not, TOR could crush him. He’s a bit of a wildcard in a game Vegas has pegged for a few runs. GPP only.
Adleman: Not liking this against one of the hottest offenses in the majors. If you must, GPP only, but I don’t see the merit.
Harvey: Quite a bit cheaper than other elite options, but facing Strasburg on the road. Love him as a GPP play, and don’t hate him for cash, either. Overall season numbers being weighed down by a rough start to his season. Much more “Harvey-like” performances over his last 5.
Folty: Hasn’t sucked, which is a surprise. Dangerous option, and GPP only, but can guarantee no one will be on him. Doubt I’ll be playing him, though, against a tough PIT lineup.
McHugh: Might not get beat up, but this lines up all wrong for McHugh. On the road, facing Sale and the surprising CWS. Not even as cheap as one might like.
Chacin: Dodgers have been warming back up and has been tougher to K recently. Don’t like or hate this matchup. Feels very average and likely tilts away from Chacin having a great night.
Wacha: Should fly under the radar a bit. Ks haven’t been there, but can have big games from time to time. Facing COL away from Coors. Not really a big fan of the play, but worthy of a GPP mention.
Locke: Yes, he’s playing ATL, but I think it would be a mistake to deploy him in cash games. He’s not very good. Does keep it on the ground a bit and limits the hard contact, but too many walks, not enough Ks, and ATL—while bad vs Ls—won’t continue to be as bad as they have been. It’s just not possible. I think Locke is a fine GPP play, but too many will use him.
Tomlin: Stellar walk rate, but gives up a load of contact, hard hit balls, and balls that don’t stay on the ground. Reds and Indians bashing each other right now. I think Tomlin makes for a bad play tonight.
Shields: Your guess is as good as mine. Pitching at Petco, and SF implied runs is just 3.7, and he has all the talent he needs. But he’s been pretty mediocre (except for his great last start in a hitters park!), and SFG simply does not strike out. Can’t justify the $8200 price tag today, but he’s a viable GPP play.
Stripling: As bad as the Angels have been, they sport a 99 WRC+ v Rs (where 100 is average). Stripling walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of hard contact. Even at his bargain price, not sure I see the upside. That said, if he gets you 15 pts, you’re doing great. GPP only.
Nova: Everything he throws winds up in play (11.8% Ks and 2.9% BBs). Everything OAK hits winds up in play (18.5% Ks and 7.1% BBs v Rs). That’s a bad combo for fantasy. Maybe he’ll wake up today, but it doesn’t look promising.
Graveman: Not a chance today. Not enough Ks against a Yankee team that doesn’t K enough. Besides, I think there’s a fair chance he gets knocked around a lot tonight.