May 3rd Quick Pitching Notes
Hey everyone! So—my apologies for not getting any pitching thoughts out over the last handful of days. For those of you who don’t know, I’m a lawyer in a big law firm, and my schedule is often unpredictable. At this very moment, we’re gearing up for a big trial which is sucking away all my time. I just haven’t had the chance to sit down to do a real in-depth analysis of the pitching slates like I want.
However, I’ve been told that at least a few of you would still like to at least see my “quick hits,” and I aim to please! So, with this full slate on tap, here are my quick thoughts! With these quick thoughts, I don’t get a chance to look in depth at matchups, ballpark splits, possible lineups, or some of the deeper numbers. But this is a good surface look.
[Note: As the CLE-DET game is not on the DK slate, being a 6:10 start, I am not looking at that game. But congrats to Justin Verlander on his engagement!]
Arrieta: He’s awesome, but don’t like him much here. Has 20-25 pt upside as I see it, and at 12k+, that’s not good enough.
Harvey: I expect him to get better, and he’s got a great matchup today, but not at that price. GPP only, but really, I don’t like him at all until he shows he can get his Ks.
Gray: Don’t hate him in cash games. But $9.3k seems too high for me.
Wacha: Like him a lot for cash games, and see the upside for GPPs, but don’t have a good feeling that he reaches it. Should be solid, though.
Kazmir: Been really unlucky with HRs. Like the GPP upside, but Kaz is always risky. TB can hit, but they can also K. $8800 again seems too high.
Moore: Like him a lot. Not as sneaky as he should be, though. Has big upside and LAD not in a great spot here.
Nola: Cards hitting over their heads, and Nola’s really good. A little risky for cash, but love him for GPPs. Most will avoid, but give him serious consideration.
McHugh: Nothing stands out for him here. Not saying you should stack Twins against him, but I don’t see a lot of K value.
Samardzija: Tough to peg this year. I don’t see the upside here, but his numbers and his matchup both disagree. Vegas thinks he’s good for cash games. I won’t say otherwise, but I could see him having a solid game or a pretty disappointing one.
Quintana: Really interesting matchup which I like for GPPs. Risky, but at 8.1k, I think it’s a good risk.
Iwakuma: Completely average matchup. Upside greater than downside, but A’s don’t K much.
Corbin: Hitters are pounding him, and in comes MIA with high K potential and high power potential. Being in MIA helps, but not a good spot here.
Wright: Good price for a GPP, but I have a tough time ever recommending a knuckleball pitcher in cash games. Individual matchups most important here.
Roark: He’s been a surprise, and his results might actually be a little sustainable. But a matchup vs KC isn’t very good. I’ll pass.
Severino: O’s are always good for Ks, but they are also always good for HRs. More risk than upside here, IMO.
Cashner: I feel dirty saying this, but I don’t mind him for GPPs. Cashner at Petco against a team that historically can’t hit on the road? And a guy with AC’s skillset? At $6700? You could make worse picks.
Wisler: Going here seems like a bad idea.
Estrada: 8 walks in last two starts doesn’t excite me, but his low price and what is certain to be low ownership against a lineup that can be had for Ks, and I like him in GPPs. Still has a rep for giving up HRs, but he doesn’t do much of that anymore.
Perez: I’ve been saying all along that this TOR lineup isn’t the one from years past. I’ll say it again now, especially after yesterday. I will resist the urge to stack against him (and you should, too), but I also won’t be using him. Too many walks, not enough Ks.
Tillman: Don’t hate him, esp. at his price, but NYY has some very good hitters in a very dangerous ballpark. Margin for error is thin. Given what should be microscopic ownership, he might be worth a GPP flyer. Tillman’s not a bad pitcher.
Young: This does not look good for him. Getting hit hard, even as his Ks are up. Nats can run hot and cold, but I like hot here.
Niese: Not the guy to take advantage of vs the Cubs K upside.
Tropeano: As we’ve seen, he has some upside, and the Brewers can K a bunch. But going with Nick T seems ill-advised when you have other cheap guys who are in better spots. But he could do well all the same.
Butler: Hard to know for sure, but super-cheap, in Petco, facing a team with a weak slate of hitters. Not without risk, but fire up for GPPs.
Nicolino: Not enough Ks to be fantasy relevant.
Moscot: No. Just—no.
Meyer: Against HOU, this seems like a disaster waiting to happen.
Guerra: At $4400, I’m intrigued. LAA a nice matchup and has been punchless. But the guy is a 31-year old AAA pitcher. That should tell you something. Still…
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