May 30th (Main) Quick Pitching Notes
Memorial Day – 7:00pm Slate Pitching Thoughts
OK—so it took my a lot longer to do my early slate analysis than I had wanted, so I have left myself no time at all to do my evening slate picks. Thankfully, there are only 5 games. I’m going to do some quick thoughts, but my overriding thought is: it’s a weak slate with lots of GPP possibilities.
Guys I like or guys that are safe:
Verlander, Kennedy, Roark. I’m a big Tigers fan, so it’s nice to see Verlander looking good again. This one is about the matchup as much as anything as LAA has a very weak lineup. They don’t strike out much, and Verlander won’t hesitate to pitch to contact if it means getting guys out. He’ll be popular, and he’s decently safe, and he has limited K upside, so that means he’s a cash play, and that’s it. As for Ian Kennedy, he’s got the best K upside on the night against the Rays, though the Rays can also hit for power. He’s been very effective this year, but he allows more flyballs than one might like. I like him a lot as a GPP play, and he’s properly priced as the 3rd most expensive. Roark has another great matchup, this one against the Phillies. He’s priced right up there with Kennedy and given how weak PHI is, he’s good for cash or GPPs.
None of this analysis should be surprising. In fact, it’s pretty chalky. None of those guys, though, inspire tons and tons of confidence, and they are all pretty expensive. Any or all of them could conceivably be bad, so there’s merit in fading any of them.
Guys I could be ok with and who might turn out a good or great outing:
Estrada, Hellickson. Hellickson has been racking up the strikeouts this year, and the Nationals have been underwhelming outside of Daniel Murphy. That said, they can erupt at any time. I thought about putting Hellickson up above, and maybe I should have. The fact he’s not favored and that WAS does not K tons gives me pause, but he could be good. As for Estrada, I like him a lot for GPPs. Gave up a couple HRs to this same NYY team, and TOR isn’t much better of an environment for him, but he’s still been good this year. The recent spate of walks plus the fact that NYY doesn’t K much worries me here, but he should be a decent GPP play.
Guy not many will be on but who might win you a GPP:
Nova. Toronto has strikeout upside, and Nova does too. He has an elite ground ball rate (61%), and low SIERA, and a K rate (15.1%) that should rise if his SwStr% (9.3%) stays where it is. His $7400 price tag is fair. The only drawback is that he’s the cheapest viable option tonight, so his ownership will likely be higher than it otherwise would be. Still, though, many people will see “Blue Jays at home” and find some other play.
Guy whose numbers don’t justify the price tag:
Andriese. It’s bad enough that he has to face the Royals, but he gives up WAY too much hard contact, and too much contact in general, to be particularly appealing. The fact that he’s $10,200 is a bit ridiculous. Now watch him go out and dominate…
Smoldering trash can fire:
Chacin. One good fantasy outing this year. That’s it. His peripheral numbers don’t look too bad, but he doesn’t get enough Ks, and this is a bad matchup against Verlander and the Tigers. The Tigers generally struggle on these west coast trips, so you might catch him scoring you some points, but I don’t like the play. GPP only here.
Full-on dumpster fire:
Locke, Nicolino. And they face each other! Awesome! Nicolino has a swinging strike rate of 3.9%. To put that into perspective, Jackie Bradley has HRs on 4% of his PAs. Jackie Bradley homers more often than Nicolino gets hitters to swing and miss at his pitches (!). Locke is just bad, and MIA is righty-heavy. Their BvP against him is ugly! .324 BA, with 7 HRs and 7 2Bs in 124 ABs. Highest-scoring Vegas projection for good reason.
That’s it for this rather small slate! Everyone will stack the PIT/MIA game, and there’s plenty of value there, but to take down a GPP, you’ll need to look elsewhere at least a little bit. Good luck!