June 27, 2016 Main Slate Pitching Thoughts
Welcome to a new week everyone! Work had me really busy, so I was a bit silent as I had little time to organize my thoughts. I should be a bit more active this week, and I’m looking forward to it. Hope you all cleaned up last week—if not, it’s a new week! I hope my thoughts can help you organize yours.
It’s a smaller slate, as is typical for Mondays, and I’ll do my normal analysis of the guys at the top and bottom of the sheet, along with my thoughts on another one or two pitchers.
Jake Arrieta: Top option for the 7:05 slate, and the sheet loves him. I do, too. All the numbers line up in his favor tonight. Elite K rate, CIN Ks a lot, his SIERA is rock bottom, he gives up hardly any hard hits or HRs. He’s been an ace this year. I do wish the game weren’t on the road—and GABP is a tough park for pitchers—but he’s in a great spot. On a small slate such as this, he’s in play for both formats, even if he’s pretty chalky. Always worth a look at a fade for large-pool GPPs, but don’t get too cute.
Noah Syndergaard: The fear will be great with him tonight. I get it. He had an elbow problem, and he’s facing a tough lineup on the road. But don’t forget, Thor is still Thor. He can dominate at any time. His peripherals (30% Ks, 2.46 SIERA, a huge ground ball rate, low hard-hit rate, very low BB rate) all point to him being a strong play. WAS is a tougher matchup than CIN, but I think most will be afraid and consequently pay up for Bauer or Arrieta. There’s room here in GPPs to beat the field.
Danny Duffy: He’s an intriguing play. Keep in mind that the sheet doesn’t do much to account for walks, and Duffy has been suffering through control problems lately. That also means he isn’t completing many innings, which means you’re getting hit twice for his inefficiencies. He’s a top option because it’s a small slate. I don’t love the play, but I think ownership will be lower than it should be. He’s a favorite with the Cardinals having a fairly low run total, though, so I could be wrong on the ownership. In the end, he’s not a bad play, but he comes with risk. That means GPP-only for me.
Vincent Velasquez: Certainly a risk coming off the DL, but he looks like he’ll be effective given his rehab start. Tough matchup against ARI in ARI, but at $7900 (DK), and what I expect will be low ownership, I really like the play. He has some serious K upside, and ARI offers the same. There’s a concern with a pitch/innings limit, but at $7900, he could get you almost 3X salary by going 5 innings and getting 5 Ks. That’s not unreasonable at all. GPP only, but a play I like!
Blake Snell: Still has great K upside, still has control issues. Really wretched matchup tonight against the Red Sox. This isn’t the same Red Sox team as earlier in the year, as they have cooled considerably, but I’m not up for messing around with them tonight. In a large-pool GPP, you could go here and hope he runs them down—it’s possible—but that’s the only reason you should consider this play.
Jeff Samardzija: I was surprised to see him down here, but that’s a function of him being really unimpressive in 3 of his last 4 starts and getting virtually no Ks in his one great outing. Oakland doesn’t have much punch, and SF is a pitcher’s park, so the downside isn’t there to a large degree. The upside is a question, but at $8400, I think he’s appropriately priced. I might not go here, but it’s not as bad a matchup as the sheet suggests.
Eduardo Rodriguez: Another one that the sheet has lower than I do. I actually like the play, though he’ll probably be more popular than he warrants. His K upside will return, and he gets a nice matchup for that against TB. That said, he’s still trying to get any sort of breaking pitch back, and until he does, there’s a lot of risk there. At $6800, he’s a fairly strong play, but there’s a chance he doesn’t do quite as well as his upside indicates.
Ivan Nova: I agree with the sheet here! I might actually have him lower than this. He’s got talent—no doubting that—but he’s been dreadful lately, and it won’t get any easier with Texas in town. This is a nice game to stack as Chi Chi Gonzalez is going opposite him.
Matt Shoemaker? High risk, high upside guy. I like him tonight for GPPs.
Robbie Ray? The Phillies are still a great team to play pitchers against. I like him, too!
Estrada? I don’t predict this will go well at all for Marco. I expect some HRs.
Bauer? Going to be a popular cash game play, and with good reason. But eventually, people will learn that the Braves aren’t as good a target as everyone makes them out to be. They just don’t strike out. Fire him up for cash games, but the upside isn’t very likely tonight.
Who do you stack? Some interesting options for offenses tonight. NYY/TEX will be a popular game to stack, as will the Rockies at Coors. TOR will also get some attention, but Game 1 at Coors, and against Gray tells me that it’s risky. I don’t mind Gray as a GPP play tonight! CLE will likely go lower-owned than they should. They just shredded Detroit (*sad face*), and they get Jon Gant. BOS will be popular, but I see that as a risk tonight. So, I might stack CLE tonight for the upside and low ownership.
Good luck all!!