August 8, 2016 Pitching Thoughts
Happy (?) Monday everyone! As a parent of little kids, Mondays are actually kinda nice for me. My weekends are busy enough, and at least I can get back into the work groove during the week! This is likely a different experience than those of you who are single (or who have no kids)!
I also like the Monday slates as they are a bit smaller and bit more manageable. Today’s is also fascinating as the two top $$ options (Fernandez and Cueto, both over $12k on DK) square off against each other. Only one other guy is anywhere near 5 digits (Odorizzi at $9,900), and everyone else is under $9k.
So let’s jump in and take a look at the sheet!
The top 5:
Jose Fernandez ($12,800): No doubt he’ll be somewhat popular. Goes at home and can strike out anyone and everyone. Is in great form despite the recent subpar (for him) scores. The Giants don’t hit the cover off the ball, either, so he should be pretty safe. They don’t K a ton, either, and that goes against him, but honestly, he strikes out so many, he’s nearly matchup proof. I like him for cash games. But boy he’s really expensive for GPPs. Is he capable of scoring 40+? Absolutely. Is SF the right matchup for that? Not particularly. How many times has he scored 40 over the last two months? 0 times. Scored 39.6 against CHC. You want about 3X salary in your GPPs, and asking for 38+ tonight seems a bit of a stretch. I’m fading.
Jake Ozorizzi ($9,900): Odorizzi’s not a bad play tonight, at least for GPPs. He’s got strong K upside, and even though TOR can be dangerous, they’ve been underwhelming on the whole season. The sheet really dings them (low contact % and high K%). Jake O. doesn’t come without his risks, though. He gives up a lot of hard hits, and a lot of fly balls, and he’s been very susceptible to Rs this year. TOR has a bunch of them, and Rogers is a great hitting park. As I said, I like him for GPPs. I expect he’ll be owned about where he should be, which is to say, everyone will see the upside, and appropriately discount the risk. Still a good play though.
Cole Hamels ($8,200): I love Cole Hamels, but he’s at Coors. That said, he has some great upside against an overall weak COL team, and he’s priced where he should be for a Coors tilt. He also limits hard hits and keeps the ball on the ground. His career numbers at Coors aren’t terrible. He is still just a GPP play, but there’s some potential here!
Julio Urias ($6,800): Everything about this matchup is awesome. Urias has great K ability, PHI is dreadful against lefties, and LAD is a great pitcher’s park, especially at night. The problem is that Urias is likely on an innings limit and—if he’s lucky—will maybe make it 5 innings. He’s cheap, and 15+ points is not out of the question, but if anything goes wrong, or if he’s limited to fewer than 5 innings, you’re toast. GPP only, and beware!
Colin McHugh ($6,000): I get that he’s been off and on this year, and I get that the Twins have been hitting well lately, but $6,000 is far too cheap for McHugh. He’s a decent source of Ks, limits hard contact a decent amount, and has a very nice SIERA. He might get hit hard, he’s far too cheap tonight. Seriously—Eflin and Reed are more expensive? I love him for GPPs.
The bottom 4:
Zach Eflin ($6,300): He has been proven to be completely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. No Ks, gets hit a lot, facing a team that’s not terrible. This doesn’t line up all that well for him.
Cody Reed ($6,400): Has some talent, but currently allowing 40%+ hard hits. Ouch! And now he gets St. Louis. They aren’t as good against Ls as they are against Rs, but this shapes up to be a bad night for Reed.
Kendall Graveman ($5,200): As always, he’s not that bad a pitcher. It’s just that he gets you no Ks. Tonight, he does face a BAL team with some K upside for him, but there’s two problems: (1) BAL crushes ground-ball pitchers (of which Graveman is one); and (2) the wind is blowing out to right pretty strongly tonight. He’s not normally a guy to stack against, but that may be different tonight.
Tyler Duffey ($4,000): Hoo boy! OK, so I get that he’s a candidate to get knocked around. No question. HOU is dangerous, and Duffey—outside a couple starts—has been very hittable. That said, let me give you some things to think about: his SwStr% (8.0%) is the same as Iwakuma’s and a tick better than Zach Davies (7.9%). His K% (17.8%) is basically the same as Iwakuma’s (17.9%). His BB rate is under 6% (again, nearly identical to Iwakuma and full percentage point below Davies). His SIERA of 4.12 is better than Davies’ (4.13) and Iwakuma’s (4.39). His Hard% of 32.9% is nearly the same as Davies (32.8%) and a shade worse than Iwakuma (31.4%). His 47.8% GB rate is better than either Davies (46.8%) or Iwakuma (39.6%). His matchup against HOU is safer than Iwakuma’s against DET and with much greater K upside than Davies’ matchup against ATL.
So what I’m saying is this: He’s roughly on par with Iwakuma and Davies, and though he has a really dangerous matchup, his upside is there. And he’s minimum priced and surely to be low-owned. I love him for GPPs.
Cueto? The K upside for his price just isn’t there. Win isn’t as likely. Everyone will be staying away from this game for the hitters, and I don’t mind a MIA stack in a really large field GPP.
Dickey? Another GPP-only play. TB hits really well in TOR, and Dickey can either be on or off. If he’s on, great! If not, ouch.
Fulmer? Slowing down a bit, but his price properly reflects it. SEA hasn’t been all that great lately. I like him for cash games.
Good luck tonight everyone!! Win some money!