Weekend Golf Scoring is as follows:
Per Hole Scoring
Double Eagle or Better (DBe): +10 PTs
Eagle (EAG): +6 PTs
Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
Double Bogey (DBB): -1 PT
Worse than Double Bogey (DBW): -1 PT
Streaks and Bonuses
Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (BIR3+): +1.75 PTs
Bogey Free Round (BOFR): +1.75 PTs
All 2 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (A2U70): +2.25 PTs
Hole in One (ACE): +4 PTs
Basically what we are looking for here are guys that have played well during Thursday and Friday that we think will shoot some low rounds as the weekend comes on.
Looking at all of the data on PGA Media site, I came to the conclusion there were about 6 different aspects I wanted to check for this tournament. In no particular order I like Good Driving Percentage, Scrambling Percentage, Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Birdies, and Par 5 Scoring. I put a little bit of a premium on Eagles because that is where the players are going to get away from the pack.
Plays Over $9,500
Dustin Johnson ($13,000) makes his return to the golf realm in a tournament that he has not participated in for the last 4 years. However, Johnson is one of the best drivers in the world and should have a leg up on the rest of the competition with his ability to hit long shots and stay around the green with some solid iron play. He is an easy fade if you believe having a little over a month off will harm his play.
Jon Rahm ($11,000) has yet to play in this tournament and has taken a few weeks off since the Masters to rest. Rahm had been playing some of the best golf of his young career and has all the tools to make a deep run this weekend. If you are trying to pivot off Johnson, Rahm is a solid play because he is still a no-name to most non-golf watchers.
Phil Mickelson ($10,200) has had some solid success here in his past four years averaging about a 70 over his 16 rounds played during that time. Mickelson didn’t have the best tournament at the Shell, but bounced back with a solid run at the masters and has all the tools to play well this weekend. Similar to Rahm, he is a solid pivot from Johnson, but I think he will be higher owned than Rahm.
Paul Casey ($9,900) looks to be a strong play for this tournament because of his ability to control the ball off the tee and have good shots into greens. One issue with Casey is that he is not one of the top putters on the tour, but his iron play should help him out with that slight deficiency. Casey would be a better GPP pick for me because I believe he will get lost in a lot of the other big names that are over $9,500.
Mid-Range $7,500 – $9,500
Francesco Molinari ($9,200) had a solid weekend at this tournament last year, averaging 71.50, but for this price he needs to have a solid finish to even be considered. Molinari has been around the top 20 in about every tournament he has been in this year (minus the Genesis Open) so I don’t think he is such a bad consideration for a GPP. I can’t see him being a high owned player and think he is worth a look in GPP scenarios.
Daniel Berger ($8,300) has shown some promise here before and has been playing some solid golf before his three weeks off. Berger had a great showing at the Shell Open and played well at the masters and could be a solid choice in a GPP scenario. At this price, he may be slightly higher owned than other guys, but he does possess the ability to win a tournament.
Pat Perez ($8,900) struggled to finish at the Heritage, but had 4 solid tournaments before with 28th at the Genesis Open being his worst finish in those tournaments. Perez is the type of guy that can get hot and run off a ton of birdies to get you a lot of points if he doesn’t have his best game. One reason I like Perez is because he has played well here over the last two years and should be able to continue that trend in 2017.
Sleepers/Value < $7,500
Luke List ($6,900) seems to always be on the top of my list, but has yet to really play well in two rounds to start a tournament. I think he is a GPP guy only, but he really has a solid game for this tournament. List is one of the top drivers on the tour and just needs to get his game going a bit with shots over 175 yards. I think one of the reasons he is struggling with these type of shots is because of his ability to over-power a course from the tee.
Matt Jones ($6,800) has not played in as many PGA tour events as some of the other guys, but has done a decent job at this price if you are looking for a safer option for cash games. Jones doesn’t have the upside of a Varner, but has made 4/5 cuts and is reasonably familiar with the course, playing here every year. The downside to Jones is that his past performance at this course has not been stellar, other than in 2015. However, he has played here 4 years in a row, which has to mean something.
Martin Laird ($7,100) has struggled a little bit with tougher competition, but has enjoyed a solid 2017 campaign. Laird sets up reasonably well on this course because of his ability to scramble around greens and his overall strokes gained on the field. He has only missed one cut this year and is a relatively safe pick for either format, while still having some upside with 3 top 10’s this year.
Below I have included a list of the guys that have the highest numbers of birdies per round in their PGA tournaments so far, this year.
Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Chris Stroud, Camilo Villegas, Luke List, Adam Scott, Daniel Berger, Phil Mickelson, Chris Kirk, and Pat Perez.
About the Author:
“CH” aka @UndoneRSG, has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. He made the transition from season long to daily fantasy sports in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. In college, Chris wrote his thesis on “Beating PECOTA ranking system” and came out with a ranking system that was equivalent with PECOTA. He has been obsessed with using statistics in fantasy ever since. Current math teacher, he is working on a ranking system for PGA and NBA that should be out shortly.