Vegas Lines per Notorious’ NBA First Look
For those who do not know me, I go by Ben Jammin and you can find me at @xBenJamminx on Twitter and DFS sites.
I also do Live NBA Video Podcasts which I share on my Twitter, Hit me up on there if you have any questions.
If you need FREE NBA DFS projections for tonight, we give them out for free here. http://www.dailyrotosharks.com/nba-projections/
Here is the link to our MINUTES WATCH article which shows whose minutes have been increasing the most lately
***Not only will I show you players I like, but WHY I like them. There has been a lot said about lineup providers flooding the market with many players using the same lineups. One thing that says to me is that there aren’t enough people who know HOW to play the game and want a quick fix. There are multiple opinions on this topic, but I would just like to point out that it is a factor when considering the ecosystem of DFS. What I have been trying to do it TEACH players how to play and what to look for and where to look. Many people may frown upon this thinking they may be losing an edge because of what I’m doing. Oh well.
I’m a leader, captain of sports teams, and a teacher. I enjoy very much teaching somebody something that helps to make their lives better. There are many people who win a ton of money in DFS but there are also many more people losing money. I love being able to share what I know in order to make people better players. Not all people want to just be spoon fed lineups when they may disagree with it or want to play someone they like. Well my opinion is that everyone should learn to play and research on their own, it makes everything more fun. This is the approach I take***
Yes I will be giving my picks here, but with reasoning behind them, I hope it helps you to understand WHY I’m using certain players. Here are some links that I use for daily research.
(All Prices here are listed for *FANDUEL* but can be used on all sites.)
It’s about that time of year in March/April when scores get incredibly high. Cash lines last night were pushing 350, which are good enough to take down GPPs on most nights, and basically every night last year. Although I don’t remember scores ever being as high as they are now and I believe there are many factors involved. This time of year, anyone who either doesn’t play regularly, or has seen their bankroll disappear, has left the DFS ecosystem. This happens in every sport, but what we are seeing is also a more informed public, ecosystem in general. There is a lot more information given out, including many free and paid tools for players.
I think it’s also worth noting that anyone who plays, is on either Fanduel, DraftKings, or both. There is an oversaturation of this market. As much success as I’ve enjoyed on these sites, it seems that the edge is disappearing. With that said, I will be doing my future articles to incorporate pricing from sites other than Fanduel. One of the Sites that I am seeing myself gravitate towards is @OwnThePlay . They show LIVE ownership of players while you’re selecting them, they have a few new games/products (besides the basic salary cap games) and they are continuing to improve and develop products. If you haven’t yet signed up, I recommend doing so here https://www.owntheplay.com/#/create-account/refid/XBENJAMMINX . They have a 0 drip feature for deposits where they money they match is immediately given to you instead of waiting for it to “drip” into your account like that other sites. I just think it’s that time in DFS where the landscape is going to be changing and would like to get in on the ground floor of something new.
I also just saw that MLB scoring has changed, there are now no negatives for outs, which much be accounted for now. They increased their hits to 3 points, 2b to 6pts, 3b to 9 points and HR to 12, among other changes. I will be discussing this in future videos/articles.
I am changing the format of my articles to see which are most popular and which are most successful. This new format will be in the format of my previous Value Articles except I’m going to be giving 2 players for each tier, for each position. Hopefully this can help you make decisions on players that you either like or don’t like. Let me know if you like this format.
Hit me up on Twitter @xBenJamminx as I am very accessible and try to respond to every DM that I get.
On to the slate.
(All Prices here are listed for *FANDUEL* but can be used on both sites.)
Marcelo Huertas $3,800 – He’s Been Playing 30mpg over his last 3 games also averaging 10ppg and has averaged 23 FD ppg in that span. I don’t know too much about him but his matchup is really good and it seems that he’s going to be getting good minutes at a cheap price. I’m big on taking players in the late game and with his recent floor being 16, I don’t mind using him here for some late value points.
Shelvin Mack $3,900 – Revenge Game. He’s not a great player but he’s been getting the job done. He has 21, 32, 7, and 23 FD points in his last 4 games. The floor is low but the ceiling is high. His minutes have been 32, 29, 24 and 30 in that same span. I really think if you’re punting that he’s a good option today. Wouldn’t you if you were playing the team that you got no minutes on, who just traded you, and your college teammate is now your current teammate helping you out? (Gordon Hayward).
De-facto Chalk Value
Patty Mills $4,200 – Tony Parker is out so Mills should get good run. Over his last 3 games he’s played 24 mpg scoring 1 FP/min. Meaning that he scores as many points as minutes played, he gets an immediate bump and will be highly owned. This has been the week of chalk value going OFF and pushing the cash line way up.
Elfrid Payton $5,600 – I love taking guards against the Lakers, they are like the Kings guards with their #NDP or No Defense Policy. He’s played 30 mpg over his last 3 games and has scored 32 FD ppg with 23, 40, and 32 FD points.. We only need 26 FD points from him to hit 5x value which is certainly possible in a good matchup.
Emmanuel Mudiay $6,000 – Mudiay is a guy who isn’t really great at shooting but he’s been scoring at a high pace his last 3 games. This is definitely out of character but I want to ride the hot streak against a bad NYK back court. He’s scored 38, 45 and 37 FD points over his last 3 games and has played 35 mpg scoring 1.15 FP/min. We only need 30 FD points for 5x value and if he continues this pace, we can ride in at low ownership.
De-facto Chalk Mid-Value
D’Angelo Russell $5,900 – He’s going to be the chalk play in this range. He’s been on everyone’s radar lately and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be. Over his last 5 games he’s averaging 33 FD ppg in 32 mpg. Having one of the better matchups on the board, he’ll definitely be popular. He’s a cash play but don’t be afraid of using him in GPPs also.
Kyle Lowry $9,000 – He gets the most minutes of the bunch with 39 mpg over his last 5 games while the two other studs have had 35 mpg. He gets a great matchup against another NY team who can’t guard anybody under 6’9”. He’s actually averaging 46 FD ppg over his last 5 and has scored 38, 44, 47, 68, and 35 FD points over that span. The floor is nice and the ceiling seems like a bit of a reach but he’s been consistent.
John Wall $9,600 – Since there aren’t many studs to pay up for, people will definitely be on him. It’s interesting that he hasn’t performed well in 2 of the last 3 games but we know his ceiling is as high as anyone. I don’t think I’ll need to force him into my lineups but knowing he’s averaged 44 FD ppg over his last 5 games still makes me comfortable using him in a plus matchup. I like this game for points and wouldn’t mind stacking it.
Markel Brown $4,100 – He’s somebody who has popped up on the scene recently and he’s shown that he can score. With 23 and 21 real ppg in his last 2 games, he’s put his minutes to work. He doesn’t have the best matchup vs Derozan but at this price and the minutes I like him. He’s scored 27, 40 and 7 FD points in his last 3 games so it seems he’s more on the GPP end.
Arron Afflalo $5,000 – Revenge game vs Denver. He’s been playing around 40 mpg over his last 3 and has scored 31, 19, and 21 over that span. He’s going to be jacked up playing tonight so I think in this good matchup he should be able to do well, if the Knicks don’t just shit the bed.
Gary Harris $5,000 – He’s going to matched up with Aflallo so that’s not good but he’s been hitting value consistently and playing 40 mpg over his last 5 games with 25 FD ppg over that span. I like him as a decent GPP pivot here at the same price as Aflallo.
De-facto Chalk Value
Danny Green $4,300 – People will jump on him knowing everyone else on their team is out tonight. Minnesota hasn’t been too good and Danny Green is a good player. He already plays a lot of minutes but he should get all he can handle tonight. I won’t be all over him but I’ll have a little exposure.
Zach Lavine $5,500 – I think Lavine is starting to become reasonably matchup proof. He hasn’t had very tough matchups but he’s scored at least 26+ FD ppg over his last 6 games and gets a depleted Spurs team with no POP tonight. I’ve been using him in cash a lot and probably wouldn’t mind him again with his 40 mpg over his last 5 games.
Evan Fournier $5,300 – He’s never someone you can truly trust but he gets the Lakers tonight. They’ve been playing better lol so if they keep this game close, he’ll need to log some minutes. He played 35 last night but when he was healthy he was playing even more than that. He’s averaged 27 FD ppg over his last 10 games and has shown a high 30s ceiling.
Victor Oladipo $6,600 – He came back and played 39 minutes last night, I don’t like that he and Fournier are both SGs but we’ll have to live with it and stack them in a GPP.
CJ Mccollum $6,900 – He gets a great matchup and we know he’s a guy who can score. He plays around 36 mpg and has scored 31 FD ppg over his last 10 games and needs 35 to hit 5x value. I don’t know how much I trust him in cash but there’s not much to pay up for.
DeMar DeRozan $7,800 – He’s going to be the top guy and for good reason. No one on the Nets will be able to stop him and he’ll be out there at least 35 minutes. He’s scored 37 FD ppg over his last 3 but we certainly need more than that. He has a pretty high ceiling but I like the SG cheaper plays today.
Bojan Bogdanovic $3,900 – Since JJ left, he’s been getting 29 mpg over his last 5 games and he’s scored 20 FD ppg in that span, he’s in a decent matchup but the minutes make up for it.
Mario Hezonja $3,900 – He’s a guy I haven’t been afraid to pay down for and today he gets the Lakers in a game where he’s going to play regardless. He’s played 28 mpg over his last 3 scoring 20 FD ppg. He’s a fine value play.
De-facto Chalk Value
Kyle Anderson $3,600 – He’s going to be the value SF that everyone flocks to because of the Spurs injuries, I’m not a huge fan but I can’t argue with his production when he gets minutes.
Gordon Hayward $7,300 – He’s been playing some of the best basketball of his career and he pretty decent matchup. He’s scored 36, 28 and 39 FD points in his last 3 games averaging 37 mpg. We need 36 FD points to hit 5x value and he’s shown a ceiling around 40. He may be less owned than people think tonight.
Kawhi Leonard $8,600 – He plays 32 mpg average on the season and that’s only going up tonight if he’s playing. He and Melo will be highly owned tonight and he’s going to be handling the Spurs load in a decent matchup. Spurs have still done well when resting players. He’s averaged 43 FD ppg in his last 7 games since returning from injury and needs exactly that for 5x value tonight.
Carmelo Anthony $9,100 – Revenge game. He’s going going back back to Colorado. He’s scored 35, 40, 38, and 38 FD points the last 4 times he’s played them. The only thing that worries me is most of those games were home. He did drop 38 on them in Denver so it’s possible but I don’t know if he’s shown the ceiling for his potential high ownership today.
David West $3,800 – There’s definitely a theme here with Spurs value and there’s been that theme all week. Seems as though we need to right the train. There’s not much special about him except maybe some increased minutes due to the starting position.
Brandon Bass $3,900 – He’s been getting increased run over the past 3 games with 27 mpg and he’s put those minutes to work with 22 FD mpg. That’s a little over the 5x we need and should get some run tonight as well. The matchup isn’t great but there’s not much to go on tonight.
Aaron Gordon $6,000 – I will be stacking this ORL/LAL game because there’s a lot of fantasy goodness that can potentially happen here. This guy is a freak athlete and I consider his 4 FD point outing a complete fluke. He’s scored 40, 35 ,20 and 29 in the last 4 games besides that and didn’t score less than 31 in at least 6 games before that.
Julius Randle $6,000 – The matchup isn’t the best vs Gordon but Randle is a young Zach Randolph and just bullies people. Gonna be a fun game to watch. He’s scored 30, 33, 26 and 31 FD point in his last 4 games averaging 30 mpg.
Lamarcus Aldridge $7,400 – He’s going to be one of the only factors on the Spurs and soak up a ton of usage. He’s already been playing around 36 mpg and he’s scored 38 FD ppg over his last 5 games. He’s shown a ceiling in the high 40s and shouldn’t be underestimated tonight.
Derrick Favors $7,600 – He’s a guy that I love to play in good matchups and the Hawks already have a bad rebounding differential. He’s been very consistent lately besides the MEM dud. He’s averaging 35 FD ppg over his last 10 games with 33 mpg, around the same amount as Millsap and Aldridge over that span. He’s coming off a 56 FD point game with 28 pts and 11 rebounds so he has potential.
Paul Millsap $8,000 – He’s Usually one of my favorite cash plays but it’s always tough taking players against Utah’s big guys with Gobert down there. I may end up leaving money on the table tonight. He’s been even more consistent than Favors which makes it a tough decision for me if I were making a cash lineup.
Boban Marjanovich $ – BananabanaBoban is definitely getting run tonight right?. Everyone’s out, there’s no POP to hold him back. Right? Idk, who knows. I just want to be right tonight if he goes off lol Don’t risk much on it.
Kyle O’Quinn $3,600 – I have no idea why this guy isn’t getting more run. These Center values are straight risky as hell GPP plays. But he’s scored 18, 19, and 21 FD points in his last 3 games. DEN isn’t good vs big men so maybe he gets some run.
Robin Lopez $5,800 – I was using him earlier in the year and stopped for a while but he’s been on a tear. He’s played 32, 32, 19, 36 and 31 mpg in his last 5 games. Take away the 19 minute game and he’s averaged 31 FD ppg over those 4 games
Nikola Jokic $5,900 – Pivot from ROLO. If he was getting 35 mpg, DEN would be killing it. Seriously this guy has 2 straight double doubles in 21 and 34 minutes. 27 Rebounds and 24 points in 2 games without playing 30 mpg in both games. He’s scored 34, 37, 28, and 22 in his last 4 and ROLO won’t be able to guard him all game.
Rudy Gobert $6,900 – I Just really like taking Gobert in good matchups and he gets the Hawks bad defensive front court. I like the price here and he’s been playing around 35 mpg. He’s good for a double double in good matchups and has back to back 18 rebound games. Don’t sleep on him tonight.
Brook Lopez $8,400 – I hate that I have BROLO and ROLO both in my article today, YOLO. I know he had mid 50s upside and he hasn’t shown it lately so that puts him more in my GPP category. Last 3 games are 33, 37, and 46 FD points. The scoring can be there but he’s not a sure thing.
Karl-Anthony Towns $8,900 – He’s playing a depleted spurs team but I don’t know if that will limit his upside because they still are the Spurs. Either way he’s the top priced guy and people have money to spend tonight. He’s coming off two 50+ FD point games and has been playing great lately. If he gets the minutes he’ll be a good option.
xBenJamminx is my DFS and Twitter name and I am xBen_Jammin on Instagram
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