Vegas Lines per Notorious’ NBA First Look
For those who do not know me, I go by Ben Jammin and you can find me at @xBenJamminx on Twitter and DFS sites.
I also do Live NBA Video Podcasts which I share on my Twitter, Hit me up on there if you have any questions.
***If you have been following me for a while, you know that I’ve been writing articles of Value plays. On large slates like these, it’s tough for me to write a lot with all the different available players. On larger days like these to save myself time, I’ll be writing about players that I like for the night. Much like what you may be used to with the industry average “Picks” articles but mine will still only be based on the VALUE and stats that I prefer regardless. It’s an easier way for me to get information out to you guys through the article, while still having time for videos… And my College Homework :-/
With that said, not only will I show you players I like, but WHY I like them. There has been a lot said about lineup providers flooding the market with many players using the same lineups. One thing that says to me is that there aren’t enough people who know HOW to play the game and want a quick fix. There are multiple opinions on this topic, but I would just like to point out that it is a factor when considering the ecosystem of DFS. What I have been trying to do it TEACH players how to play and what to look for and where to look. Many people may frown upon this thinking they may be losing an edge because of what I’m doing. Oh well.
I’m a leader, captain of sports teams, and a teacher. I enjoy very much teaching somebody something that helps to make their lives better. There are many people who win a ton of money in DFS but there are also many more people losing money. I love being able to share what I know in order to make people better players. Not all people want to just be spoon fed lineups when they may disagree with it or want to play someone they like. Well my opinion is that everyone should learn to play and research on their own, it makes everything more fun. This is the approach I take***
Yes I will be giving my picks here, but with reasoning behind them, I hope it helps you to understand WHY I’m using certain players. I also do my best to distinguish the difference between Cash and GPP plays Here are some links that I use for daily research.
Even though I can’t share Fantasy Labs info anymore, I still don’t want to change the name that has become so popular.
(All Prices here are listed for FANDUEL but can be used on both sites.)
Shelvin Mack PG $3,500 – Punt Play. Everybody has been on him recently and he’s been Boom/Bust. But who cares when you’re 3.5k and have a 30 FD point ceiling. He has had only 2 duds in 7 of his games, scoring 7 FD points. In the other 5, he’s scored 32, 23, 18, 17, and 29. He gets a good matchup and should still get his 25+ minutes at min price. Careful in cash because of the low floor, especially on a day you don’t need crazy value.
Donatas Mitoejunas PF $3,500 – Punt Play. He’s at min price facing a bad Chi front court. He’s gotten 22 and 19 minutes the last 2 games with 13 and 15 FD points. He isn’t showing signs of upside but I may stack him in a Hou/Chi stack for a GPP. Not thrilled about it and don’t need a ton of value today but he’s starting and getting decent minutes so I may bite on this one.
Jose Calderon PG $3,800 – He’s nothing more than a cheap GPP play. His price has dropped $800 in the past 2 months and has shown a 33 FD point ceiling, coming off a 25 FD point game. He’s scored 17+ FD points in 4 of his last 7 games. Usually I wouldn’t play someone like him but he plays over 30 mpg and at this price, I love that.
Bojan Bogdanovic SF $4,000 – He’s been getting the larger share of Joe Johnson’s minutes and he’s scored 19, 31 and 26 FD points in the last 3 games. I like this game and don’t mind picking a few players from it
Bobby Portis PF $4,600 – He’s been playing very well and even though Taj may play tonight, the Bulls are very thin right now especially with big men. He’s scored 22, 26 and 34 FD ppg over his last 3 and is averaging 27 mpg. The matchup isn’t that great but he should be okay.
Kent Bazemore SG $4,800 – He’s been a pretty inconsistent option but he’s been picking his play up as of late. His rebounds haven’t changed much but he’s scoring more points. He went through a bad slump last month and may be coming out of it. His price is down $1000 since January and gets a matchup vs either Redick or Crawford who don’t play D.
Donald Sloan PG $4,800 – At this price we only need 24 FD points for 5x value. I don’t expect a high ceiling from him but he’s scored 19+ FD points in his last 6 games scoring an average of, 24 FD ppg. He gets a nice matchup against a defensively inept TWolves. There should be some juicy fantasy-ness in this game.
Patrick Beverley PG $4,900 – I was all over Beverley when he was putting up 23 FD ppg, and now he gets a pretty good matchup and he’s scored 26+ FD points in 4 of his last 6 games. He gets at least 25+ mpg and usually closer to the mid-30s range. His price hasn’t gone over 5k yet and he’s been hitting value consistently. I love this game also.
JJ Redick SG $4,900 – He’s been so hot lately and gets a nice matchup tonight vs Korver. He’s averaged 24 FD ppg over his last 9 games. He’s been playing very well and although he doesn’t provide much more than scoring real points, he’s been hitting 5x consistently for a while now and he’s been a nice cash option for me.
Zach LaVine SG $5,300 – He may be the only cash option for the Wolves at the moment and gets a great matchup vs the Nets guards. He’s been playing an average of 38 mpg over his last 4. He’s averaged 25 FD ppg over his last 10 games and has had a ceiling of 32 with a floor of 18. That’s a great range. Besides that he has a small standard deviation, meaning there isn’t much difference between the highest and lowest numbers. He’s been very consistent.
Tobias Harris SF $5,800 – The matchup isn’t great but he’s been very consistent, averaging 27 FD ppg since joining the Magic and needs 28 to hit 5x. After scoring 28 FD point vs the Spurs, I’m not scared to take him here.
Andrew Wiggins SG $6,200 – So I’ve been trying to think of more GPP strategy lately and I think most people will be off of the Wolves because of that happened last night. But I assume it was the same thing with Orlando when the team was getting blown out and on a B2B they got some rest. Wiggins hasn’t had less than 31 minutes in the last month besides last night. He’s been inconsistent so no cash but if I’m stacking them tonight, I’ll get some Wiggins.
Monta Ellis SG $6,300 – I love me some Monta. He’s a guy who can get you 30 FD points any night and he gets a very nice matchup tonight. He plays almost 40 mpg and has scored 26+ FD points in each of his last 4 games with 3 of them being 32 and 37. I feel more comfortable in cash with him over Wiggins at this price.
Reggie Jackson PG $6,600 – I like taking PGs against my Knicks because well, they can’t guard them. I would prefer to have guards going against them instead of big men. He’s a guy with 45+ upside especially with Brandon Jennings gone. He has scored 26+ FD ppg in 6 of his last 7 games and scored 30 FD ppg over that time.
Rudy Gobert C $6,700 – He’s someone I like taking in good matchups because he plays to his opponent. His price is down $800 since last month and at this price we need 30 FD points from him for 5x value. He’s scored 43, 25, 28, and 44 FD points in his last 4 games so there’s a bit of volatility in his play but he should be in a good spot tonight.
Kevin Love PF $7,000 – His price is down at the lowest it’s been in a while. They rested him, because he needed rest which is fine. He hasn’t been a consistent option with all the mouths to feed. He’s scored 30+ FD points in 5 of his last 7 with a ceiling of 48 FD points. We know he has potential but he’s pretty risky.
Thaddeus Young PF $7,100 – He’s been playing great lately and has played 34+ mpg over the last 8 games. He’s turned that into 34 FD ppg over that time with 50 FD point upside. He gets a nice matchup vs Dieng and should be able to hit his 5x value once again.
Lamarcus Aldridge PF $7,400 – He’s one of the few players who gets over 30 mpg on the spurs and he’s taken advantage. He’s scored 35+ FD points in 5 of his last 7 games and the other two were 27 and 28. He’s shown consistency and upside and gets a nice matchup vs Cousins. He has a double double in 2 of his last 3 games and gets a faster paced game than those.
Dwight Howard C $8,000 – Dwight Has come alive again and I like this matchup a lot. The Bulls have an injury ravaged already weak front court. We need 40 FD points from him to hit 5x value and he’s done that in 2 of his last 4 games, but only 5 of his last 10. That’s not consistent enough for me to want to trust in cash but I like stacking this game.
Kawhi Leonard SF $8,400 – He’s a BEAST. He’s averaged 43 FD ppg over the last 8 games and is coming off a 52 FD points game which shows the $1,200 rise in salary in the last month. But it’s still down since December. He gets a great matchup tonight with a great pace and should be able to keep up his torrid pace.
Paul George SF $8,500 – He’s been a GPP play but he’s definitely hit his value recently. In his last 4 games he’s had games of 64, 28, 43, and 19. That’s not consistent. But he’s averaged 37 FD ppg over his last 8 games. That’s the opposite of Lavine’s small standard deviation. With highs of 64 and lows of 19.
Jimmy Butler SG $8,700 – Not much to go by here but his coach said that his minutes will be unrestricted and there’s a lot of injuries with the Bulls right now. He gets James Harden’s Zero Defense Policy and if D Rose goes out, might be one of the only ones left.
LeBron James SF $9,800 – This is my sweet spot for Lebron’s price. He’s been very consistent lately, although not extreme upside. He’s scored 50, 44, 41, and 43 FD points in his last 4 games. He’s getting 5x value at a Studs price. Last game he scored 50 FD points with 19 real points, could have been a massive game.
James Harden SG $10,900 – Hearing that Jimmy Butler is back makes me uncomfortable. But I think that just limits his upside. In his last 7 games facing Jimmy, he’s scored 40, 32, 10, 31, 46, 41 and 11. Not completely comfortable and I’m not playing in cash.